LEARNING MECHANISMS BEHIND THE COST DECLINE OF CRYSTALLINE SILICON (c-Si) SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) MODULES

Download

Emel Semiz_STPS_PhD.pdf

Date

2023-2

Author

Semiz, Emel

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

170
views

203
downloads

This dissertation aims at understanding different learning mechanisms behind the cost decline of c-Si solar PV modules. Among all renewable energy technologies, solar PV energy has had the highest installation rate and the largest cost decrease in the last 10 years. Learning curves, which demonstrate a constant change in unit costs against each doubling of global cumulative output, have been the most often used tool in the PV roadmaps to explain the mechanism that causes the insistent fall in costs. However, this approach attributes the decrease in cost merely to one factor which is known as learning by doing, thereby bringing along some risks like overestimation of the investigated effect and suppression of other potential causes. Hence, it prevents the resources to be allocated more efficiently. In the study, first, an econometric panel data analysis was carried out based on 11 PV manufacturing companies listed in the US Stock Exchange between 2003 and 2019. Following, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 19 PV experts from multiple regions of the world. By this qualitative part, the underpinning causes and instruments that enabled the learning patterns examined in the preceding quantitative analysis were inquired. As a result, some factors that were associated with different dimensions of learning were investigated under control of some external technological and industrial factors. Thus, the researching and interacting attitudes within the firms and the dynamic capabilities that they might have embodied were directly or indirectly revealed and justified through successively carried out econometric analysis and expert elicitations. Finally, based on the overall findings attained upon expert interviews, policy recommendations at international and national levels as well as firm level strategy suggestions were made in order to maintain the technology and cost improvements in the PV manufacturing industry.

Subject Keywords

learning curves, photovoltaic, panel data estimation, cost of PV modules, Technological Innovation Systems

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/102059

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

INTEGRATED INSTANCE-BASED AND KERNEL METHODS FOR POWER QUALITY KNOWLEDGE MODELING Guder, Mennan; Salor, Ozgul; Cadirci, Isik (2010-10-28) In this paper, an integrated knowledge discovery strategy for high dimensional spatial power quality event data is proposed. Real time, distributed measuring of the electricity transmission system parameters provides huge number of time series power quality events. The proposed method aims to construct characteristic event distribution and interaction models for individual power quality sensors and the whole electricity transmission system by considering feasibility, time and accuracy concerns. In order to ...
Modelling and performance evaluation of an organic rankine cycle (ORC) with R245FA as working fluid Bamgbopa, Musbaudeen Oladiran; Uzgören, Eray; Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems (2012-5) This thesis presents numerical modelling and analysis of a solar Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) for electricity generation. A regression based approach is used for the working fluid property calculations. Models of the unit’s sub-components (pump, evaporator, expander and condenser) are also established. Steady and transient models are developed and analyzed because the unit is considered to work with stable (i.e. solar + boiler) or variable (i.e. solar only) heat input. The unit’s heat exchangers (evapor...
Data-driven, long-term prediction of building performance under climate change: Building energy demand and BIPV energy generation analysis across Turkey Tamer, Tolga; Gürsel Dino, İpek; Akgül, Çağla (2022-07-01) This research presents a methodological framework for lifetime energy demand and PV energy generation predictions for a given building considering the CC impacts through multivariate regression models. As a case study, a hypothetical office building in Turkey was selected. An existing linear morphing methodology was utilized to generate future weather files for all 81 cities in Turkey. For each year and city, corresponding weather metrics were calculated, and heating/cooling demand and PV energy generation ...
Measurement of economic feasibility of photovoltaic power plants - application to Turkey Karaveli, Abdullah Bugrahan; Akınoğlu, Bülent Gültekin; Soytaş, Uğur (2018-11-05) Photovoltaic (PV) technology has reached a competitive level owing to high learning rate and technological advance. It is now a feasible technology however its feasibility varies with many parameters such as: location where PV Power Plant (PV PP) is installed, its technology, economic and social state of the country and even the unpredictable future events. In short, it depends on the cost and revenue and so the legislation, incentives, market situation, climate of the location together with solar irradiati...
Understanding the plasmonic properties of dewetting formed Ag nanoparticles for large area solar cell applications Gunendi, M. Can; TANYELİ, Irem; Akguc, Gursoy B.; Bek, Alpan; Turan, Raşit; Gulseren, Oguz (The Optical Society, 2013-07-29) The effects of substrates with technological interest for solar cell industry are examined on the plasmonic properties of Ag nanoparticles fabricated by dewetting technique. Both surface matching (boundary element) and propagator (finite difference time domain) methods are used in numerical simulations to describe plasmonic properties and to interpret experimental data. The uncertainty on the locations of nanoparticles by the substrate in experiment is explained by the simulations of various Ag nanoparticle...

Citation Formats

E. Semiz, “LEARNING MECHANISMS BEHIND THE COST DECLINE OF CRYSTALLINE SILICON (c-Si) SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) MODULES,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2023.