PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF KANLIKÖY DAM FAILURE IN CYPRUS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

Date

2023-7-5

Author

Türkel, Atilla Onat

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

311
views

515
downloads

Cite This

Dam failures can lead to detrimental results with significant loss of life and economical loss due to rapidly increasing and unpredictable levels of water flow. In last two decade, the northern part of Nicosia, the capital city of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, has experienced recurring flash floods due to extreme precipitation events. The small embankment dam of Kanlıköy poses significant risks to the region. The main objective of this study is to assess the potential risks of flooding associated with three different dam breach scenarios and evaluate the probable consequences for the urbanized area located downstream. In this context, three different models, hydrologic, dam breach, and hydrodynamic models were established. Through the application of statistical approaches and HEC- HMS, a catchment model was derived to generate inflow hydrographs for scenarios. Possibility of failure modes used in scenarios was verified separately. For each scenario, Monte Carlo simulations were executed by using plausible ranges of important breach parameters using the McBreach and HEC-RAS. As a result, four exceedance probabilities of peak discharges and respective unique hydrographs were separated in each scenario and used as input into the HEC-RAS 2D flood model. Totally 12 hydrodynamic simulations were executed. At post-processing stage, probabilistic maps of maximum depth and maximum velocity were generated for each scenario. Additionally, flood hazard levels of the study area and vulnerability of the structural inventory was quantified. The combination of this study establishes a comprehensive framework that effectively addresses the level of uncertainty associated with flood risks arising.

Subject Keywords

Dam Breach, Flood Hazard Mapping, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probabilistic Assessment, Hydraulic Modeling

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/104746

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis