Coordinated Guidance Law for Interceptors in Ballistic Missile Defense

Date

2023-7-21

Author

Cevher, Fırat Yılmaz

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The advancements in modern, more agile, and high-maneuverability targets such as ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or aircraft make interception increasingly difficult. It is challenging for a single interceptor to engage these types of targets and high-technology, high-maneuverability interceptors are often required. To address these requirements, a novel coordinated guidance law was proposed that enables the utilization of multiple inferior interceptors rather than relying on a single high-tech interceptor in the context of ballistic missile defense. The proposed guidance law aims to adjust the interceptors' trajectories during their mid-course guidance phase to increase the probability of interceptions by ensuring that the most probable future positions of the target are covered. The proposed guidance law has three steps: estimating the target state, calculating the most probable future positions of the target, and evaluating the coverage of these positions by the interceptors. In the first step, the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) filter was used for state estimation. In the second step, the predicted target states, which represent the most probable future positions of the target, were calculated. The predicted target states were modeled as a probability density function (pdf) that incorporates uncertainties in the target's state. The predicted target state calculation methods were analyzed for two cases based on whether the maneuvering capability of the target is known or unknown. For both cases, two methods were proposed to obtain the pdf of the predicted target state: single Gaussian and Gaussian mixture. In the last step, the likelihood of the reachable set of interceptors, computed based on the predicted target state, was obtained. The likelihood was used as a measure of the interceptors' coverage of the future positions of the target. To increase the probability of interception within a finite time, the trajectories of the interceptors were adjusted collaboratively based on the likelihood values. An extensive Monte Carlo study was used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods against targets in challenging maneuvering modes. The results of the study demonstrate that the proposed coordinated guidance law is effective in improving the ability of inferior interceptors to increase the probability of interception against targets in challenging maneuvering modes.

Subject Keywords

Coordinated guidance law, High-speed and high-maneuverability targets, Multiple missiles, Inferior interceptors, Probability density function, Probability of interception, Reachable set, Midcourse guidance, Interacting multiple model filter

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/104869

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis