Bayesian belief network-based contractor profitability risk assessment for PPP hospital projects in Turkey

Aslantaş, Alper
This research endeavors to develop a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)-based framework for assessing contractor profitability risks in Public-Private Partnership (PPP) hospital projects in Turkey. As PPP projects gain prominence in the healthcare sector, it becomes crucial to identify and manage risks that may impact the profitability of contractors undertaking these projects. The proposed BBN model aims to provide a comprehensive and systematic approach to evaluate the complex interplay of factors affecting contractor profitability, such as project characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory environment, and operational performance. The research begins by conducting a thorough review of existing literature and engaging in consultations with industry experts to pinpoint pertinent risk factors, which are subsequently consolidated into a comprehensive list. Employing specialized software, GeNIe, the BBN model is developed with input from experts, encompassing risks, relationships, and probabilities. Through this probabilistic graphical model, the BBN incorporates expert knowledge to estimate conditional probabilities and quantify the impact of various risk events on contractor profitability. The model’s accuracy is ensured through validation using experts’ opinions, and necessary adjustments are made based on validation tests to enhance the accuracy of risk assessments for contractors in PPP hospital projects. Furthermore, the practical application of the BBNbased risk assessment is demonstrated through a case study, providing valuable insights into risk mitigation strategies and empowering stakeholders to make informed decisions and optimize risk allocation in PPP hospital projects. In conclusion, the proposed BBN framework holds promise as an effective tool for evaluating contractor profitability risks in PPP hospital projects. By enabling a systematic analysis of risks and their interdependencies, this research contributes to enhancing the success and sustainability of PPP initiatives in the healthcare sector. The findings are expected to assist policymakers, project developers, and investors in formulating risk management strategies that promote the efficient delivery of highquality healthcare services in Turkey’s PPP hospital projects.
Citation Formats
A. Aslantaş, “Bayesian belief network-based contractor profitability risk assessment for PPP hospital projects in Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2023.