Export-led growth hypothesis and the Turkish data: An empirical investigation

Date

1998

Author

Özmen, Erdal
Furtun, Gülperi

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This paper investigates the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis for the post- 1970 quarterly Turkish data by using Johansen cointegration techniques. We consider three systems nested by a four-variable space postulated to explain aggregate real exports, and test the robustness of the results of the cointegration and long-run weak exogeneity analyses to omitted relevant variables. The results suggest that the nonrejection of the no-cointegration null for a bivariate system containing real exports and real output is due to the omission of a relevant variable, namely real effective exchange rates (rer). When the bivariate system is augmented with rer, the no-cointegration null is strongly rejected. The same result is obtained for a four-variable general system containing also real world output. The cointegration vectors for each of the relevant systems explain real exports with real output being weakly exogenous for the parameters of the corresponding long-run aggregate exports equations. This result suggests the rejection of the empirical validity of the export-led growth hypothesis for the Turkish data.

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https://hdl.handle.net/11511/108432

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Department of Economics, Article