Estimating the emission mitigation impact of light duty vehicle electrification in road transportation in the light of increasing motorization rate

Date

2024-1-25

Author

Dalkıç Melek, Gülçin

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Transport sector not only has high energy consumption but also works on fossil fuel mostly. Strong relationship between economic development and transportation demand makes it more critical for developing countries, where there is a growth in private car ownership, called motorization rates (MR). Shift to electric vehicles (EVs), especially in Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) may reduce CO2 emissions that can contribute to climate change mitigation. EV market estimation in the light of increasing MR based on expected GDP is proposed as a joint process used to estimate i) vehicle fleet size and ii) EV shares in LDVs, and iii) number of EV-LDVs. Assuming travel characteristics for different mode, travel scale and fuel type, total future demand in Turkey is estimated as vehicle-km travelled (VKT), in which CO2 emission reductions by the EV-LDVs are calculated a) with zero tailpipe emissions and b) including emissions due to electricity production. To better understand the future EV market, sensitivity analyses are conducted based on three different GDP growth levels, three MR saturation rates, and different EV market penetration policy scenarios for LDVs. Based on the saturation rate of 550 vehicles/1000 inhabitants and medium economic growth of GDP, in 2060, MR will reach to 474.1 vehicles, when total number of PCs will increease to 39 millions. The logistic growth model projected exponential EV growth until 2045, followed by a slowdown, estimating electric PCs (EV-PC) counts by 2060 ranging from 19.5 to 39 million, and electric LDVs (EV-LDVs) from 26.5 to 52.9 million. If the expected growth forecasts for EV penetration are realized, it is clear that the reduction in CO2 emissions can be increased if the electricity is produced from renewable energy sources. The carbon emission factors associated with Turkey's current electricity production make it difficult to the desired levels of emission reduction and the net-zero emission target.

Subject Keywords

Road Transportation, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Motorization Rate, Light Duty Vehicles, Electrification

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/108779

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis