Ground Motion Simulation in Large Basins

Date

2024-2-23

Author

Şişman Dersan, Fatma Nurten

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A significant component of seismic risk evaluation estimation is the assessment of potential earthquake ground motion records which are anticipated during future earthquakes. For this purpose and other engineering applications, simulated ground motions are being used increasingly. Simulated full waveforms are useful for realistic nonlinear structural dynamic analyses and performance-based earthquake engineering purposes in general. This is particularly true for the regions where the probability of large earthquakes is high despite the lack of such large events recorded within the instrumental era and the regions with sparse ground motion datasets. In this study, two different study areas are selected: Erzincan basin and İstanbul metropolitan. In the first part, the March 13, 1992, Erzincan (eastern Türkiye) earthquake (Mw=6.6), which was recorded at only three strong ground motion stations, will be simulated using the hybrid ground motion simulation method. The source and regional path parameters for this destructive earthquake will be adopted from previously validated studies whereas the local site parameters are derived herein. The high-frequency attenuation (kappa) factors are derived from regional strong motion data while the local soil models are obtained in the field with one of the most prevalent noninvasive methods: Multi-Mode Spatial Autocorrelation. Consequently, peak ground acceleration distributions and full waveforms are presented. In the second part, hybrid ground motion simulations of several earthquake scenarios are performed to obtain broadband ground motion time histories for potential events in Istanbul. Next, for validation purposes, the peak ground motion amplitudes are compared against existing empirical ground motion models.

Subject Keywords

Broadband Ground Motion Simulation, Stochastic Finite-Fault Model, Deterministic Simulations, İstanbul, Erzincan

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/108907

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis