OPTIMAL SIZING OF HYBRID MICROGRIDS WITH CONSIDERATION OF GLOBAL WARMING EFFECTS: A MARS AND GRG APPROACH

Date

2024-4-26

Author

YILMAZ, YAVUZ

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This study from the METU North Cyprus Campus projects load and power demands spanning from 2026 to 2050, integrating regional global warming forecasts from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report into the design of an optimal microgrid system. Using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method, hourly load, wind speed, and solar irradiance are forecasted, facilitating accurate estimations of the potential electricity generation from solar PV and wind turbines. Different com- binations of these renewable sources, augmented with battery storage, are optimized through the Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) method. The overarching aim is to minimize the Weighted Average Cost of Energy (waCOE) while upholding a specific renewable energy fraction (Fres) of 60% where possible. Statistical insights from the analysis reveal a rising trend in electricity demand due to global warming, escalating from 6,367 MWh in 2026 to 6,605 MWh by 2050. Wind power is expected to de- crease by approximately 21.9% under global warming scenarios, while solar power exhibits a slight increase, hinting at the varying impacts of climate change on these en- ergy sources. The optimization of hybrid microgrid configurations (WT+PV+BESS) across scenarios showcases their critical role in achieving energy security and eco- nomic efficiency. Notably, in the face of global warming, these configurations effec- tively manage waCOE, with a significant reduction to 0.188 Euros/kWh for 2039 and maintaining a low 0.236 Euros/kWh for 2050. The network tariff is 0.175 Euros/kWh for all scenarios. This indicates that comprehensive, integrated renewable systems are imperative for future energy solutions, adapting to environmental changes while ensuring sustainable and cost-effective energy supplies.

Subject Keywords

global warming, load forecasting, microgrids, renewable energy sources, renewable power forecasting, sustainable energy systems

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/109837

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis