Exploring relations between solar activity, cosmic rays, clouds and earth climate using machine learning techniques

Date

2024-01-01

Author

Belen, B.
Leloğlu, U.M.
Demirköz, Melahat Bilge

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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The Earth's climate is a complex system that can be influenced by various internal and external factors. Previous research has explored the relationship between climate and external forcings such as solar activity and GCR. However, the relations are intricate and intertwined into almost chaotic meteorological measurements. This paper delves deeper into understanding their interactions. GCR flux, Sunspot number (SSN), total solar irradiance (TSI), UV irradiance (UVI), and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) are the predictor variables, while total cloud amount (TCA) and low cloud amount (LCA) are the response variables. The analysis begins with standard statistical techniques and continues with multiple regression models including random forest, which is a machine learning (ML) method that can be used for non-linear regression. Subsequently, Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) is employed to scrutinize the correlation among the predictor parameters. In the ML model, the final 25% of the dataset is held out and tested for validation, so, the predictive power of the algorithm is measured. Both geographical and temporal patterns have been investigated. This study suggests that a non-linear relationship might exist between the parameters, and should be investigated further, particularly in specific regions of the world.

Subject Keywords

Climate, Clouds, Cosmic Rays, Random Forests, Solar Activity

URI

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85196076159&origin=inward
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/110303

Collections

Department of Physics, Article