Spatial panel data analyses on the effects of climate change on wheat production in Türkiye

Date

2024-9-05

Author

Yükçü, Şerife Selcan

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

104
views

97
downloads

Cite This

Climate change has been a persistent threat for many years, but its effects have become visible in recent years. Consequently, climate change has emerged as a significant research topic. Its effects can be observed directly or indirectly in nearly every field, including agriculture. Numerous studies have been conducted on the impact of climate change on agriculture, both globally and in Türkiye. However, previous studies have not investigated how specific agricultural products in Türkiye are affected by climate change at the provincial level. Therefore, this study aims to explore how wheat, one of the most common agricultural products in Türkiye, is impacted by climate change on a provincial basis. For this purpose, a provincial basis data set was utilized, encompassing wheat yield from 2004 to 2020, climate change variables related to temperature and precipitation, and also the GDP per capita. Due to the panel structure and spatial correlation of the data, spatial panel models, spatial error model (SEM), spatial durbin model (SDM) and spatial lag model (SLM) were applied. Then the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used, which can also explain the spatial nonstationarity in the data. According to the study results, SEM, SDM and SLM models showed that increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation amounts did not have a negative effect on wheat yield in Türkiye. On the other hand, the GWR model showed that increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation amounts had a positive effect in some provinces and a negative effect in others.

Subject Keywords

Agriculture, Climate Change, GWR, Spatial Analysis, Spatial Panel Data

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/111477

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis