Application of fuzzy logic based coastal vulnerability model in coastal cultural heritage sites in Turkey

Date

2024-12

Author

İnce, Akdeniz

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Coastal vulnerability assessment is a key factor in achieving the sustainable development of coastal areas and helps decision-makers prepare or adapt their coastal management plans. These plans are essential for countries such as Türkiye, which has 8,333 km of shoreline length, along which many coastal cultural heritage areas and natural conservation zones are located. These areas are very valuable for Türkiye in economic and social terms; however, they are also susceptible to sea-level rise. Therefore, in this study, the Fuzzy Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Model (FCVAM) was utilized to determine the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) along the shoreline projection of 1,176 coastal cultural heritage sites and 1,171 natural conservation zones, focusing on coastal erosion, inundation, and coastal flooding due to storm surge, by considering pathways defined in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (2023). The results of all scenarios are provided, whereas, for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, an in-depth comparison and discussion are presented, highlighting the key factors that drive changes in vulnerability for both cultural heritage sites and natural protection zones. In the case of SSP2-4.5, when global FCVAM limits are considered, the most vulnerable class observed was "Moderate," while the most common one was "Low" vulnerability. On the other hand, localization of results by redefining class limits concerning Natural Jenks Breaks shows that 11.6% of natural conservation zones and 16.1% of cultural heritage sites in Türkiye are highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise relative to all studied shorelines. The model was then run for SSP5-8.5 conditions to observe how impact scores and CVI would be affected. The highest number of class changes were observed in the erosion module, while the inundation module demonstrated the most severe vulnerability class shifts. However, despite increases in CVI and impact scores, the most common and most vulnerable class—other than one highly vulnerable cultural heritage site—did not change. Regarding localized results, 18.4% of natural conservation zones and 20.7% of cultural heritage sites are highly vulnerable. On a regional scale, for both pathways, since most of the natural conservation zones and cultural heritage sites are located in the Aegean Region, the highest number of least and most vulnerable shores are within this region.

Subject Keywords

Coastal vulnerability assessment, Fuzzy logic, Sea level rise, Coastal cultural heritage sites, Natural conservation zones

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/112949

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis