Shaping peace in shadows: the role of intelligence in the Syrian reconciliation process

Date

2024-12

Author

Çelik, Recep Erkam

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The study explores the role of intelligence as an independent and primary actor in the foreign policy decision-making processes of the Astana countries, namely Russia, Iran, and Türkiye in the Syrian reconciliation process. It highlights how intelligence has evolved from merely supporting traditional diplomacy to becoming an autonomous actor driving key negotiations within the Astana process. It presents the concept of clandestine diplomacy and identifies the involvement of intelligence actors from these countries. Clandestine diplomacy refers to the independent involvement of intelligence actors bypassing traditional actors in foreign policy decision-making processes. The main objective of the study is to reveal how the clandestine diplomacy of Astana format and intelligence agencies shape these processes, focusing on their critical roles from the Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) perspective. Utilizing Explaining-Outcome Process Tracing (EOPT), this study traces the integration of intelligence actors within the Astana format and their impact on the Syrian reconciliation process (2012- January 2024) while addressing regional security and cooperation. Clandestine diplomacy thus emerges as a critical concept, and its potential in crisis resolution is thoroughly analyzed. Through these concepts, this study can determine whether the promised stability has been achieved as a sustainable political dialogue for regional security. Finally, this work contributes to regional security and intelligence studies, both theoretically and practically.

Subject Keywords

Syrian Reconciliation Process, Clandestine Diplomacy, Intelligence-Diplomacy-Military Nexus, Astana Format, Regional Security

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/112952

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis