Sea level rise and flood vulnerability of coastal heritage sites: an assessment of rapid methods and modelling techniques

Date

2024-12-02

Author

Uysal, Arif Çağatay

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The past civilizations have settled on the water shores to benefit from its advantages. This is evident from the amount of coastal cultural heritage sites present today. However, these heritage sites are experiencing the impacts of climate change. Sea level rise and extreme weather events increase the risk of flooding, inundation, and erosion. Therefore, it is imperative to promptly evaluate the potential loss of these areas and the associated risks to safeguard the natural values and historical artifacts. The objective of this study is to map the flooded and inundated areas of four coastal heritage sites under various climate change scenarios. The aim is to illustrate and compare different flood analysis and vulnerability assessment methods. Three different techniques are used in the flood mapping. simple and enhanced bathtub models (Williams, 2019), and dynamic numerical modeling. For dynamic numerical modeling, Delft3D (developed by Deltares) is used. The maps are compared to the Coastal Vulnerability Index method (Ozyurt, 2007) which is a desk-based assessment method. The method comparison revealed that with low resolution DEMs, eBTM overestimates the flood extents whereas with high resolution, sBTM and eBTM were compatible with a slight overestimation of sBTM. The flood map obtained by Delft3D was smaller than the bathtub ones prepared with extreme watervi level databases. The flood maps and CVI revealed that Teos is the most vulnerable site against the inundation due to sea level rise and Soli-Pompeipolis is the most vulnerable one against the future extreme water levels while Anemurium being the least vulnerable one.

Subject Keywords

Coastal cultural heritage areas, Climate change, Sea level rise, Extreme water levels, Flooding

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/112958

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis