The domestic roots of geoeconomic competition: an innenpolitik approach to saudi-uae rivalry (2015-2020)

Date

2025-3

Author

Ereli, Gökhan

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This dissertation contends that the geoeconomic competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from 2015 to 2020 is best understood through key internal factors: leadership and elite preferences, economic institutions, and internal stability and regime security. Innenpolitik theory, which prioritizes internal variables, offers a more accurate explanation than Neorealism or Neoclassical Realism, which prioritize external pressures on state behavior. The leadership of Crown Princes Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Arabia) and Mohammed bin Zayed (UAE) was central in shaping each state's economic strategies and competition. Institutions such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), and national diversification projects—like Saudi Vision 2030 and Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030—became vital tools in their competition to reduce oil dependency and assert regional leadership. Concerns over regime stability also drove internal policies focused on consolidating power and mitigating threats. The methodology of this dissertation uses process tracing to analyze causal links between these internal variables and foreign policy outcomes. The research is supported by expert interviews from the region and beyond, providing in-depth insights into the internal drivers of this rivalry. While external factors—such as the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2010), the Arab popular movements (2011-2013), and Asia's rising economic influence— exacerbated the competition, trends between 2015 and 2020, including competition in finance, tourism, technology, oil price volatility, and GCC fragmentation, further heightened the rivalry. Nevertheless, internal political and economic dynamics were the primary drivers.

Subject Keywords

Geoeconomic competition, Internal variables, Innenpolitik, Saudi-uae relations, Economic diversification

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/114033

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis