Effect of uncertainty in wind on wind-hydro hybrid system

Date

2025-4-09

Author

Gündoğdu, Onur

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Energy management remains a critical challenge in today’s energy sector, where efficient storage and utilization are essential. Historically, fossil fuels have dominated energy production due to their ease of storage compared to renewable sources. However, growing energy demand, heightened awareness of environmental damage from fossil fuels, and the drive for energy independence in nations lacking fossil resources have fueled interest in renewable alternatives. Despite their advantages, renewables like wind and solar face difficulties due to their intermittent and unpredictable nature, complicating storage and grid integration. For instance, wind turbines rely on fluctuating wind speeds, making it hard to estimate energy generation in advance. Pumped-storage hydropower plants have emerged as a leading solution for large-scale renewable energy storage. This thesis extends a prior optimization study that determined the daily operational schedule for a wind-hydro hybrid system (Ercan, 2020). While the previous study neglected wind speed uncertainty, this study integrates it into the optimization model to evaluate its impact on energy storage efficiency and operational decisions. Wind speeds are simulated using the autocorrelated Latin Hypercube Sampling (aLHS) method to reflect variability and uncertainty accurately. These simulated hourly wind speeds, combined with realized electricity prices, refine the model, deepening understanding of how wind speed and price uncertainties shape system performance. The findings of this thesis demonstrate that electricity price volatility has a greater impact on revenue than wind speed variability; therefore, WHHS operators should explicitly incorporate electricity price uncertainty and forecasting into their operational planning.

Subject Keywords

Renewable energy, Uncertainty analysis, Hourly wind speed simulation, Autocorrelated Latin hypercube sampling

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/114583

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis