Assessment of the Effect of Uncertainties Associated with Input Parameters on Failure of Earth-fill Dams

Date

2025-6-23

Author

Diler Övenler, Dilan

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Dam failures have major effects on the environment and human life, and lead to serious financial losses. Flash floods have become increasingly frequent in recent years and are considered a significant factor contributing to dam failures. Kanlıköy Dam, Cyprus, is likely to be affected by flash floods, and its failure poses serious risks for Nicosia. This study evaluates input parameters, hydrologic and dam breach parameters, influencing potential failure of the dam. A hydrologic model was developed in HEC-HMS and calibrated using 2010 Flood in Nicosia. Sum of Squared Residuals method yielded the highest Composite Performance Metric value (0.82), so calibrated hydrograph and parameters obtained from this method were used. Moreover, sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the parameters based on their level of influence. Curve Number (CN) was found to be the most sensitive parameter, followed by Muskingum-K. Finally, uncertainty analysis was applied to generate possible maximum and minimum inflow hydrographs, which are essential to examine overtopping induced dam failures. The uncertainty analysis indicated maximum and minimum peak discharges of 82.45 m³/s and 74.67 m³/s. Probabilistic dam failure analyses were performed using McBreach and HEC-RAS, considering both overtopping and piping failure scenarios under minimum and maximum hydrograph conditions. McBreach provided breach parameters for exceedance probabilities from 1% (rare but severe failure) to 99% (more frequent yet less severe event). The highest peak discharge, 635 m³/s, occurred during overtopping failure at 1% exceedance probability, while the lowest discharge, 220 m³/s, occurred during piping failure at 99% exceedance probability.

Subject Keywords

Hydrologic Modeling, HEC-HMS, Sensitivity Analysis, Dam Breach, McBreach

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/115127

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis