Date

2025-6-24

Author

Özbilge, Tolga

Metadata

Show full item record

503 Service Unavailable

No server is available to handle this request.

Item Usage Stats

1975
views

0
downloads

Cite This

Hydrological and climate modeling are essential for understanding the impacts of climate change on water resources, providing critical insights for decision-makers. However, these models are subject to uncertainties arising from a variety of sources, so it is essential to assess and quantify these uncertainties to ensure reliable projections and effective water resource management. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on hydrological systems and runoff uncertainties by analyzing the contributions of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), hydrological models (HMs), and Bias Correction Methods (BCMs), using the Oymapınar Basin in southern Turkey as a representative case study. The study uses Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Quantification of Uncertainty Ranges (QUR) to assess uncertainty sources. Results show RCMs contribute over 90% of uncertainty in historical data, but their influence declines in future scenarios as BCM-related uncertainty rises. Seasonally, RCMs dominate in winter, while BCMs are projected to play a greater role in future uncertainty. Bias correction methods like Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) and Ho’s method effectively reduced biases—QDM performed best for summer rainfall, while Ho’s method had lower winter errors. Hydrological modeling with HEC-HMS showed strong rainfall-runoff simulation with low errors and narrow uncertainty. With stable land use in the basin, climate change is identified as the primary driver of water resource changes. The study highlights the importance of integrating robust modeling techniques and advanced bias correction methods to enhance the reliability of hydrological projections. The findings emphasize the need for comprehensive multi-model approaches and uncertainty assessments to support climate resilience and adaptive water resource management. By focusing on the Oymapınar Basin, this research provides valuable insights for addressing the challenges posed by a changing climate in vulnerable regions.

Subject Keywords

Climate Modelling, Uncertainty Analysis, Hydrological Modelling

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/115144

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis