Combined Risk Assessment of Multiple Tailings Dams

Date

2025-7-3

Author

Ataman, Nihat

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Failures of tailings dams pose a significant threat to public health and safety, as well as to social and economic life and the environment. While studies on the risk assessment of traditional water storage dams are well established, the literature on the risk assessment of tailings dams is relatively new. In particular, the assessment of risks posed by multiple tailings dams is lacking. Current risk assessment approaches typically focus on the potential consequences of a single dam failure downstream. This thesis study aims to develop a comprehensive methodology for assessing the combined risk from multiple tailings dams located upstream of a settlement. The proposed approach shifts the focus of the assessment from a single dam to the potentially affected community (settlement). In the event of a dam failure, the impacts on human health, social and economic life and the natural environment are taken into account and the total consequence of the event is determined by combining these different impacts. The thesis presents an innovative approach to assess the failure potential of tailings dams in two main phases: active life (operation or deposition) and passive life (post-closure or abandonment), including management factors. A further significant contribution of the study is the development of a system dynamics model that facilitates a time-dependent evaluation of risk levels, incorporating the complex and dynamic interactions present within the failure potential and consequence models. This model incorporates elements that are frequently overlooked in conventional risk assessments, such as significant health concerns and social interactions. The application of the developed combined risk model to a hypothetical scenario and the 1985 Stava tailings dam disaster in Italy demonstrates that the proposed model more accurately predicts the risk faced by a downstream community. It is therefore anticipated that this thesis will make a substantial contribution to the literature on the risk assessment of tailings dams.

Subject Keywords

Tailings Dam, System Dynamics, Risk Assessment, Risk Body, Combined Risk

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/115461

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis