UNCERTAINTY BASED ASSESSMENT OF FAILURE MODES OF EARTH-FILL DAMS

Date

2025-8-18

Author

Bakar, Ürün

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Dam Failure disasters result in a wide range of consequences in terms of economic, environmental, and social problems. For this reason, risk levels on dams with common failure modes, such as overtopping and piping need to be evaluated as a part of probabilistic risk management. Uncertainties in upstream boundary conditions and spatially random soil parameters are considered for a hypothetical earth-fill dam in this study. Monte Carlo Simulation is utilized in the random number generation of upstream boundary conditions at each time node and overtopping reliability is computed accordingly. Assignment of random boundary conditions on a hypothecial dam excluding randomness of soil parameters is established at first stage using SEEP/W software. Seepage model files are copied and solved simultaneously Monte Carlo simulations. Spatially randomness of soil is considered and modeled by OPTUM G2 together with stochastic upstream boundary conditions, introducing a fully integrated uncertainty framework. Sensitivity analyses are performed by considering variability of random parameters in the model. Reliability based analyses are conducted together with uncertainty-based assessment of failure modes. Engineering applications, such as rapid fill is also considered to evaluate integrated uncertainty framework in short and long-terms.

Subject Keywords

Earth-Fill Dams, Failure Modes, Monte Carlo Simulation, Random Field Theory, Random Finite Element Method

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/115610

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis