FORESIGHT-BASED POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEFENSE AND AEROSPACE INDUSTRY: THE CASE OF HONEYCOMB MATERIAL TECHNOLOGY

Date

2025-9-25

Author

Kocamış, Gül Beyza

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This thesis explores the future of honeycomb material technologies in the defense and aerospace sectors through a structured foresight framework. A mixed-methods research design integrating both qualitative and quantitative approaches was employed. Initially, a quantitative patent analysis was conducted as an input to validate the case selection, confirming the growing relevance of honeycomb structures in aerospace materials technology. This was followed by a Futures Wheel focus group, resulting in 24 foresight statements. These statements were evaluated based on their impact on the future, operational application areas, and dual-use potential, with the relative importance of each criterion determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Final scores were calculated by combining participant ratings with these weights, ensuring that each score reflected both expert judgment and the strategic relevance of the criteria. Based on the top-ranked pathway, a second focus group was conducted using the Backcasting method, after which a qualitative analysis was conducted to support the development of concrete policy recommendations. This thesis contributes to the field by introducing a quantitative model for prioritizing pathways derived from Futures Wheel outputs, applying an integrated foresight framework that combines exploratory and normative approaches, and proposing a flexible scenario evaluation methodology suitable for various defense-related technological domains. Furthermore, it addresses a significant gap in Türkiye's defense planning ecosystem by offering a replicable and scalable foresight framework to support long-term decision-making.

Subject Keywords

Foresight, Backcasting, Defense and Aerospace Technologies, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Scenario Planning

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/116134

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis