DETERMINANTS OF EXPORTS IN TURKISH PROVINCES: A SPATIAL DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Date

2025-12-31

Author

İldemir, Atakan

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This thesis investigates why export performance differs across Turkish provinces and how spatial linkages shape these differences. This study groups the determinants of provincial exports into three blocks which are economic-financial structures, knowledge-innovation and accessibility-connectivity by using balanced annual panel data from all 81 NUTS-3 Turkish provinces over 2008-2023. The empirical strategy combines dynamic cross-sectionally augmented error-correction models with dynamic spatial panel estimators. This strategy allows to analyze long-run relationships as well as short-run dynamics and spatial spillovers. The results show that imports and manufacturing activity support higher export growth and negative significant error-correction terms imply rapid adjustment back to long-run equilibria. Human capital and innovation matter more as a bundle than through any single proxy, while improvements in connectivity tend to raise local exports but may create competitive pressure on neighboring provinces.

Subject Keywords

Provincial Exports, Spatial Dependence, Spatial Econonetrics, Spatial Dynamic Panel Models, Spillover Effects

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/118258

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis