Overtopping performance of coastal structures in Izmir Bay under sea level rise until 2100

Date

2025-12-01

Author

Başara, Ilgın

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Coastal structures protect the urban areas against coastal flooding by limiting wave overtopping specifically during storm events. The volume of wave overtopping is governed by wind and wave conditions with associated water levels and the relative crest height of the structure. Changes in mean sea level rise is expected to decrease the relative crest height which will reduce the performance of the coastal structures to overtopping and coastal flooding. İzmir Bay is surrounded by vertical seawalls and sloped coastal structures that function as coastal protection and recreational areas. An increase in wave overtopping is observed in recent years, although the reasons cannot only be attributed to climate change. However, projected sea level rise is expected to change the performance which will present frequent flooding problems around the Inner İzmir Bay. This study aims to present a temporal assessment of changes in wave overtopping in inner İzmir Bay under sea level rise until 2100. Incremental increase of mean sea level is modeled to determine the changes in overtopping volume at selected coastal protection structures for storms of different return periods. The storm conditions are hindcasted and extrapolated using SWAN model based on wind data of the region between 1950-2024. Overtopping calculations followed EurOtop formulations. The significant changes in the overtopping performance of structures are discussed based on the wave overtopping recommendations for urban areas for human and traffic use. The change in wave overtopping performance is reflected on expected time scales of projected sea level rise under SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios for İzmir Bay. The results can be used for adaptive pathway assessments for İzmir Bay under extreme storm conditions and coastal flooding.

Subject Keywords

Sea Level Rise, Wave Overtopping, EurOtop, SWAN Wave Model, Climate Change Scenarios, Adaptation

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/118261

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis