TEMPORAL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR COASTAL STRUCTURES IN IZMIR BAY UNDER SSP5 SCENARIO

Date

2025-12-01

Author

Gayretli, Simge

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Storm-induced wave overtopping poses a significant flood risk to urban coastal areas, which is mitigated by protective infrastructure along shorelines. The volume of wave overtopping is influenced by multiple factors including wind velocity, wave dynamics, water levels, and relative freeboard. As climate change is affecting the wind and wave dynamics in addition to sea levels, the wave overtopping performance of existing coastal defenses are expected to change. Izmir Bay's shoreline is defended by a combination of vertical wall and sloped rubble mound coastal structures that fulfil dual roles of hazard mitigation and public recreation. In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of overtopping events have escalated along this coastline, though climate change represents only one of several contributing factors to this observed trend. Structural measures can be used to adapt the existing structures such as increasing the crest height, building a superstructure like stilling wave basin or designing a low crested rubble mound berm in front of the existing structure. The time to invest in such adaptation measures will depend on the changes in wave overtopping volume as well as the changes in the storm and water level conditions. Therefore, in this study, the storm conditions are modelled using SWAN that uses CMIP6 based projected wind data under SSP5 scenario for Izmir Bay region for the years 2015-2100. Sea level rise is also included under SSP5 scenario. The new hydrodynamic conditions are used to calculate the overtopping volumes for the existing structures, change in crest height and stilling wave basin. The overtopping assessment is based on EurOtop formulations and existing literature on stilling wave basin and combined structures studied specifically for Izmir Bay. Temporal dependency on selecting the adaptation measures is discussed based on the projected conditions and time scale of SSP5 scenario. The results can be used for adaptive pathway assessments for Izmir Bay under extreme storm conditions and coastal flooding.

Subject Keywords

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, Wave Overtopping, SWAN Modelling, Adaptation

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/118262

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis