MORTALITY SALIENCE AND RISK-TAKING IN DECISION MAKING: CAUSAL AND COGNITIVE MODELLING OF BEHAVIORAL AND NEURAL MECHANISMS

Date

2026-1-14

Author

Başerdem, Elif Öykü

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The replication crisis poses a significant challenge for Terror Management Theory (TMT), particularly regarding the link between Mortality Salience (MS) and risk-taking. While TMT argues that reminders of mortality directly increase risk-taking, empirical findings are inconsistent. This dissertation aims to address these inconsistencies by focusing on the relationship between TMT and risk behavior by modelling the causal and cognitive mechanisms based on a systematic literature review and an empirical study. First, the study builds a causal model of this relationship based on a systematic literature review and the "Evidence Synthesis for Constructing Directed Acyclic Graphs" (ESC-DAG) methodology. This structure synthesizes existing evidence to evaluate consistency within the literature. Second, the dissertation investigates neural and cognitive mechanisms using electroencephalography (EEG) and the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). Unlike previous TMT studies relying on self-report scales, this design measures objective risk-taking behavior and its neurological correlates. Finally, the study investigates the underlying mechanisms of this relationship by extending Bayesian cognitive models to reproduce human risk behavior under MS. By integrating causal evidence, neural markers, and computational modeling, this research aims to clarify the TMT-risk relationship and contribute to resolving the reproducibility crisis in the field.

Subject Keywords

Terror Management Theory, risk behavior, causal modeling, systematic review, Bayesian cognitive models

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/118391

Collections

Graduate School of Informatics, Thesis