THE MILITARY AI COMPETITION BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA: IS IT AN ARMS RACE?

Date

2026-2-13

Author

Karaca, Ulaş

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The military utilization of AI technology has the potential to disrupt the international balance of power, especially the balance of power between the United States and China. Throughout the last decade, the term Artificial Intelligence (AI) Arms Race has been extensively used with reference to the U.S-China military technology competition. However, the framing of this competition as an AI arms race is not without its perils. With particular respect to the realist arms race literature and the traditional definitions of the term arms race, this thesis attempts to clarify whether the AI-induced military technology competition between the United States and China amounts to an AI arms race. For that purpose, four prerequisites of arms races are identified: a) a balance of power disagreement between two states, b) a functional military relationship between these states, c) the availability of novel technology conducive to the development of new weapons, d) a sudden and perpetual mutual increase in the defense spending of rival states. Although the AI-induced military technology rivalry between the United States and China meets the first three prerequisites of being an arms race, the military expenditure data of the two states does not demonstrate a sudden and continuous bilateral increase. Therefore, this thesis concludes that the military technology competition between the United States and China does not constitute an AI arms race.

Subject Keywords

Arms race, AI arms race, military technology competition, United States, China

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/118436

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis