THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBANIZATION ON URBAN FLOODS AND THE USE OF LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD MITIGATION

Date

2026-1-22

Author

Daghestani, Tameem

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Urban floods are impacted by climate change which can lead to more frequent extreme rainfall events and by urbanization which reduces infiltration and increases runoff. Since the stormwater drainage systems were designed for stationary conditions, it is predicted that urban floods will become more frequent in the future due to the combined impact of climate change and urbanization. A potential mitigation solution comes in the form of low impact development (LID) strategies. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of climate change and urbanization on urban floods, both independently and collectively, and to evaluate the potential benefits of LIDs for the study area of Boğaziçi neighborhood, Mamak, Ankara, for different rainfall durations, return periods, and climate models. The simulations were carried out in Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was used to rank the LID scenarios. The possible combinations of bio-retention cells, rain barrels, rain gardens, and vegetative swales were evaluated in this study. The results show that the expected annual peak runoff and inflow can be reduced by 1.5% up to 29% and 0.2% up to 23%, respectively, among all scenarios considered. The preference of LID scenarios using TOPSIS varied for different weights, return periods, and durations showing the significance of criteria priorities in decision making. Modelling future development plans coupled with future rainfall projections led to an increase of over 32% in runoff, 23% in inflow, and 204% in total flood volume.

Subject Keywords

Climate Change, Urbanization, Low Impact Development, SWMM, TOPSIS

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/118487

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis