Urban-scale resilient cooling strategy analysis for mitigating indoor overheating: a UBEM-Based approach considering climate change

Date

2026-06-15

Author

Köse, Dican Deniz
Akyol, Ilkim Canli
Gürsel Dino, İpek

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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Rising global temperatures are intensifying indoor overheating risks in cities, increasing health and comfort disadvantages. Projections indicate that these overheating challenges will intensify over the coming decades, making proactive assessment of neighborhood-scale resilience strategies increasingly critical. This study evaluates the long-term effectiveness of passive cooling scenarios for a mixed-use neighborhood in Kadıköy, Istanbul, under the SSP5-8.5 high-emission scenario for 2025, 2050, and 2080. Overheating assessment is performed by first developing a calibrated, zone-level Urban Building Energy Model (2,455 buildings and 12,016 zones) and using adaptive comfort standards CIBSE TM52 and TM59 for residential and office zones separately. A systematic assessment of temperature difference from the overheating threshold, overheating risk assessment, and overheating delay is followed by the analysis of the reduction in CO2 emissions. Passive envelope renovations, such as cool wall and roof paints, and low-SHGC glazing, are simulated as combinations for present and future scenarios. Results show that residential buildings benefit from passive cooling scenarios more than offices, since offices remain vulnerable due to daytime internal gains. In future-oriented analyses, zones that failed the overheating risk analysis were given mechanical cooling in the year they failed. Cooling demand generally aligns with overheating severity, but deep renovations weaken this relationship, highlighting that energy use alone is not a reliable indicator of comfort risks. Overall, passive-first renovations can reduce overheating risks by an average of 11 years and up to 50 years, and cooling-related CO2 emissions, but selective mechanical cooling will remain necessary beyond mid-century to ensure climate-resilient, low-carbon renovation scenarios.

Subject Keywords

Overheating, Passive cooling, Thermal comfort, Thermal resilience, UBEM

URI

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=105037202261&origin=inward
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/119271

Collections

Department of Architecture, Article