FROM PROTEST TO CIVIL WAR: EXPLAINING DIVERGENT OUTCOMES IN SYRIA, LIBYA, AND EGYPT AFTER THE ARAB UPRISINGS

Date

2026-7-27

Author

Elkafafy, Omneya

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This thesis investigates why the 2011 Arab Uprisings resulted in the start of civil wars in Syria and Libya but not in Egypt, which saw widespread demonstrations and a regime crisis. It contends that this discrepancy cannot be explained by widespread protest alone. Instead, whether the advent of organized armed adversaries transforms protest capacity into insurgent capacity determines if civil war breaks out. The thesis analyzes Egypt as a negative case and Syria and Libya as positive cases of civil war, using a qualitative comparative case-study methodology. Three interrelated variables serve as the basis for the analysis: the emergence of organized armed challengers, elite cohesiveness and defection during the start of protests, and state coercive capacity and institutional cohesion. The comparison reveals that Syria and Libya took different paths to militarization: Syria through incremental repression, isolated resistance, and opposition militarization, whereas Libya through fast institutional breakdown, elite fracture, and military mobilization. In contrast, Egypt demonstrates that even large-scale protests and regime change do not always result in civil war when coercive institutions remain intact, and opposition forces fail to acquire sustained insurgent capacity.

Subject Keywords

Arab Spring, Civil War Onset, Mass Protest, Armed Challengers, Coercive Institutions

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/119989

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis