A State-of-the-Art Ground Motion Simulation Study in Türkiye-Validations of the 2023 Kahramanmaras Earthquakes and Scenario Applications on North Anatolian Fault Zone

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A State-of-the-Art Ground Motion Simulation Study in Türkiye-Validations of the 2023 Kahramanmaras Earthquakes and Scenario Applications on North Anatolian Fault Zone_C Temiz.pdf

Date

2026-8-25

Author

Temiz, Çağlar

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Earthquakes have long been among the most destructive natural hazards in Türkiye. The 1999 Marmara earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) and the 6 February 2023 Pazarcık and Elbistan earthquakes along the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) clearly demonstrated the severe consequences of large earthquakes in the country. Fortunately, advances in science have provided useful tools for reducing seismic risk, such as ground motion simulation. It has become an important tool in earthquake engineering for estimating potential seismic demand and supporting risk mitigation. However, validating simulated ground motions remains a major challenge. In this study, the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence is simulated using a broadband approach that combines deterministic spectral-element simulations at low frequencies with stochastic finite-fault simulations at high frequencies, and validated with the real records. In addition, scenario earthquakes are investigated for Yalova and Bursa, two seismically critical regions located near active segments of the NAFZ. The simulations are validated through comparisons with selected ground motion models suitable for the study regions. The results are then presented as PGA, PGV, and MMI-based hazard maps. Overall, this study aims to improve the understanding of regional seismic hazard and contribute to earthquake risk mitigation efforts in Türkiye.

Subject Keywords

Stochastic Finite-Fault Ground Motion Simulation Method, Hybrid Broadband Ground Motion Simulation Method, Kahramanmaraş, Yalova, Bursa

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/121026

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Citation Formats

Ç. Temiz, “A State-of-the-Art Ground Motion Simulation Study in Türkiye-Validations of the 2023 Kahramanmaras Earthquakes and Scenario Applications on North Anatolian Fault Zone,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2026.