Turkish energy sector development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE model assessment

Download
index.pdf
2018-11-01
Kat, Bora
Yuan, Mei
Show full item record
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
81
views
0
downloads
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, Turkey pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 21% by 2030 relative to business-as-usual (BAU). We expect that fulfilling this pledge will likely require a reduced reliance on fossil-based energy and additional investments in low-carbon energy sources. To fully assess these impacts, we develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Turkish economy that combines macroeconomic representation of non-electric sectors with a detailed power sector representation. We analyze several scenarios to assess the impact of an emission trading scheme: one including the planned nuclear development and a renewable subsidy scheme (BAU), and another with no nuclear technology allowed (NoN). Our assessment shows that in 2030, without policy, primary energy will be mainly oil, natural gas and coal. Under an emission trading scheme, however, coal-fired power generation vanishes by 2030 in both BAU and NoN due to the high cost of carbon. With nuclear (BAU), GHG emissions are 3.1% lower than NoN due to the resulting energy mix, allowing for a lower carbon price ($50/tCO2 in BAU compared to $70/tCO2 in NoN). Our results suggest that fulfillment of Turkey's pledge may be possible at a modest economic cost of about 0.8-1% by 2030.
Climate mitigation policies, Turkish energy sector, Emission trading systems, Applied general equilibrium modeling, Paris Agreement, Disaggregated power sector
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/30361
Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Article

Suggestions

Turkey’s energy system development: Linking an energy supply model with an industrial simulation model and solving it iteratively
Gungor, Gorkem; Sarı, Ramazan (2018-01-01)
Turkey is in the progress to include nuclear energy to its electricity generation capacity. The energy modelling studies for Turkey mainly focus on usage of renewable energy and local fossil fuels and include nuclear power plants (NPP) only with their electricity generation capacities without taking into consideration the front- and back-ends of the nuclear fuel cycle. This study takes into consideration the life cycle assessment (LCA) of nuclear energy based on optimisation of energy system costs and usage...
Evaluation of emission cost of inefficiency in road freight transportation in Turkey
Ozen, Murat; Tüydeş Yaman, Hediye (2013-11-01)
Turkey as a European Union candidate state, signed Kyoto Protocol in 2009, which required reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions. Road freight transportation accounts for a quarter of the emissions from transportation sector, so it is one of the implementation areas for emission reductions. When disaggregate data exist, it is possible to detect inefficiency in freight movements and consequently to quantify emission cost of it in road freight sector. Using roadside axle surveys, this study first described...
Drivers of fuel based carbon dioxide emissions: The case of Turkey
Akbostancı Özkazanç, Elif; Tunç, Gül İpek (2018-01-01)
In this study, CO2 emissions of Turkish economy are decomposed for 1990-2013 period for five sectors; agriculture, forestry and fishery, manufacturing industries and construction, public electricity and heat production, transport and residential. Additionally, manufacturing and construction sector's CO2 emissions are decomposed for iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, pulp, paper and print, food processing, beverages and tobacco, non-metallic minerals, petroleum refining and other industry for the...
Turkish Architectural and Civil Engineering Education within the Scope of Sustainable Construction
Topak, Fatih; Tokdemir, Onur Behzat; Pekeriçli, Mehmet Koray; Tanyer, Ali Murat (null; 2018-11-18)
As construction industry is one of the dominant contributors to the world’s total CO2 emissions and it has huge negative impacts on the environment, sustainable construction has become a key aspiration in the field. Through utilizing resource efficiency and ecological design, sustainable construction is considered as the main concept to create and operate a healthy built environment. Although sustainability has been demonstrated as a timeless objective for continuous development i...
The role of feed-in tariffs in emission mitigation: Turkish case
Ari, Izzet; Sarı, Ramazan (2015-08-01)
The aim of this paper is to present the role of Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs) on GHG emission reduction in Turkey. Due to insufficient installed capacity, Turkey can only utilize 27% of its total economically viable renewable energy potential. To increase the share of the renewables, utilization of these sources has become a top priority in the overall energy agenda. Thus, new regulations and policies are introduced. These policies are expected to serve to increase installed capacities of renewable energy power pl...
Citation Formats
B. Kat and M. Yuan, “Turkish energy sector development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE model assessment,” ENERGY POLICY, pp. 84–96, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/30361.
METU IIS - Integrated Information Service open@metu.edu.tr