Gökova fay zonu için düzlemsel sismik kaynak modeli

Date

2018-04-27

Author

Gülerce, Zeynep
Kaymakcı, Nuretdin

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Türkiye Yenilenmiş Diri Fay Haritası’nda (http://www.mta.gov.tr/v3.0/hizmetler/yenilenmis-diri-fay-haritalari) temel olarak karadaki faylar dikkate alınmış olduğundan, Gökova Fay Zonu’nun deniz içi bölümü bu haritada yer almamaktadır. 20 Temmuz 2017 Kos-Bodrum depremi (Mw:6.6) Gökova Fay Zonu’nun deniz içerisindeki bölümünü kırmış ve deprem sonrası yapılan çalışmalar fayın deniz içinde yer alan bölümü hakkında önemli veri sağlamıştır. Elde edilen veriler depreme kaynaklık eden 25 km uzunluğundaki güneye eğimli doğu-güneydoğu doğrultulu fay bölümünün 12 km sismik derinliğe sahip olduğunu işaret etmektedir. Öte yandan, Gökova Fay Zonu’nun Olasılıksal Sismik Tehlike Analizi’nde (OSTA) kullanılabilecek düzlemsel bir sismik kaynak olarak modellenmesi için gerekli olan yıllık kayma hızı, karakteristik deprem büyüklüğü, karakteristik depremin tekrarlanma aralığı, segmentasyon modeli gibi parametreler halen belirsizliğini korumaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, fay bölümlerinin beraber ve/veya tek tek kırılma olasılıklarını mantık ağacı çerçevesinde ele alarak düzlemsel faylara dayalı bir sismik kaynak modeli oluşturmak ve bu modelleri kullanarak Gökova Körfezi için OSTA’ni gerçekleştirmektir. Önerilen bu modelde fay bölümleri, sismik kaynaklar ve kırılma senaryoları Amerika Jeoloji Araştırma Kurumu’nun (USGS) WGCEP-2003 terminolojisi kullanılarak tanımlanacak ve deprem kataloğundaki etkinlikler tanımlanan sismik kaynaklar ile eşleştirilerek senaryo ağırlıkları sismik enerjinin denkleştirilmesi yöntemi ile bulunacaktır. Çalışma sonucunda belirlenen 475 yıl dönüşümlü kuvvetli yer hareketi değerleri Türkiye Sismik Tehlike Haritası ile kaşılaştırılarak Kos-Bodrum depreminin yürürlülüğe girmesi planlanan bu harita üzerindeki olası etkisi irdelenecektir.

Subject Keywords

Gökova fay zonu, Kos-Bodrum depremi, Sismik kaynak modeli, Olasılıksal sismik tehlike analizi, Gökova fault zone, Kos-Bodrum earthquake, Seismic source characterization, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

URI

https://www.jmo.org.tr/resimler/ekler/9ee599173fc3528_ek.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/88119

Conference Name

71. Uluslararası Katılımlı Türkiye Jeoloji Kurultayı, 23 - 27 Nisan 2018

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Conference / Seminar

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Citation Formats

Z. Gülerce and N. Kaymakcı, “Gökova fay zonu için düzlemsel sismik kaynak modeli,” Ankara, Türkiye, 2018, p. 87, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.jmo.org.tr/resimler/ekler/9ee599173fc3528_ek.pdf.