Burnt by the sun: disaggregating temperature’s current and future impact on mortality in the Turkish context

Date

2021-05-01

Author

Özen, İlhan Can

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Our study plans to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on differentcritical Turkish health outcomes mainly to chart future developments andto identify locations in Turkey that may be potential vulnerable hotspots.The general structure of the temperature mortality function was estimatedwith different fixed-level effects, with a specific focus on the mortality effectof maximum apparent temperature. Regional models were fitted to pinpointthe thresholds where the temperature–mortality relation changes, thusinvestigating whether the thresholds are determined nationally or regionally.The future patterns were estimated by extrapolating from future temperaturetrends: analyzing possible future mortality trends under the restrictingassumption of minimal acclimation. Using the fixed effect regressionstructure, social and developmental variables acting as heat effect modifierswere also identified. In the largest dataset, the initial fixed effect regressionspecification supports the hypothesis summarized by the U-shapedrelationship between temperature and mortality. This is a first corroborationfor Turkish climate and health research. In addition, intermediation effectswere substantiated for the level of urbanization and population density, andthe human development and health development within provinces. Regionalheterogeneity is substantiated by the mortality–temperature relationship andthe significant threshold deviations from the national average.

URI

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/new-perspectives-on-turkey/article/abs/burnt-by-the-sun-disaggregating-temperatures-current-and-future-impact-on-mortality-in-the-turkish-context/107B59EFE86D28D51167DB0EDFAFA677
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/90143

Journal

New Perspectives on Turkey

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1017/npt.2021.6

Collections

Department of Economics, Article

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Citation Formats

İ. C. Özen, “Burnt by the sun: disaggregating temperature’s current and future impact on mortality in the Turkish context,” New Perspectives on Turkey, pp. 1–37, 2021, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/new-perspectives-on-turkey/article/abs/burnt-by-the-sun-disaggregating-temperatures-current-and-future-impact-on-mortality-in-the-turkish-context/107B59EFE86D28D51167DB0EDFAFA677.