Office rent variation in Istanbul CDB: an application of mamdanı and TSK-type fuzzy rule based system

Karimov, Azar
Over the past decade, fuzzy systems have gained remarkable acceptance in many fields including control and automation, pattern recognition, medical diagnosis and forecasting. The fuzzy system application has also been accepted as a promising approach to dealing with uncertainty in real estate valuation analysis. This is mainly due to the necessity of coping with a large number of qualitative and quantitative variables that affect the value of a real property. The appraisers use a great deal of judgment to identify both the characteristics that contribute to property values and the relationships among these characteristics in order to derive estimates of market values. This thesis uses the two widely-used fuzzy rule-based systems; namely the Mamdani and Takagi- Sugeno-Kang (TSK) type fuzzy models in an attempt to examine the main determinants of office rents in Istanbul Central Business District (CBD). The input variables of the fuzzy rule-based systems (FRBS) comprise: i) physical attributes of office spaces and office buildings, ii) lease contract terms, and iii) tenants’ perception of the office rent determinants, tenants’ location of residence, tenants’ transportation modes, etc and as the output the system proposes the office property’s rental price. Obtaining office rent determinants is a significant issue for both practitioners and academics. While,practitioners use them directly in demand and sensitivity analyses, academics are more interested in the relative significance of these variables and their effect on the variation in office rent to forecast market behavior. Our data set includes a detailed survey of 500 office spaces located in Istanbul CBD. We have carried out two Mamdani-type FRBS and two TSK-type FRBS for the office space and office building data sets. In these FRBS analyses, firstly the so-called representative office spaces are determined, then the average office space rents are estimated. Finally, the spatial variation in the average office rents across the CBD sub-districts, along with the Office space rent variations with respect to different clusters, like number of workers, number of floors and so on, have been analyzed. We believe that presenting the spatial variation in office rents will make a noteworthy contribution both to the real estate investors and appraisers interested in Istanbul office market.


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Citation Formats
A. Karimov, “Office rent variation in Istanbul CDB: an application of mamdanı and TSK-type fuzzy rule based system,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2010.