Essays on Economic Consequences of a Political Conflict: 2015 Russia-Türkiye Dispute

Yüksel Yücel, Canan
The main objective of this study is to analyze the economic impact of the political conflict between Russia and Türkiye which began after Türkiye shot down a Russian warplane on the Syrian border on 24 November 2015. In response, Russia announced a package of economic sanctions, some of which restricted bilateral tourism activities. As the second most important country in terms of the number of visitors coming to Türkiye, these measures by Russia had a profound impact on the Turkish tourism sector. We examine the impact of these restrictions on the Turkish tourism sector and their spillover to other sectors using micro-level datasets. The dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay we document the differential impact of the political shock on tourism establishments, using an establishment-level dataset constructed from administrative records. In the second essay, we analyze the impact on the labor market using a matched employer-employee dataset. This essay provides a comprehensive overview of the tourism labor market and an empirical analysis of the employment and earnings trajectories of the long-tenured workers in the post-2015 period. The third essay examines the transmission of the shock to non-tourism firms through trade relations. Using administrative records on firms’ balance sheets and firm-to-firm trade transactions, we show that firms in non-tourism firms that traded with tourism firms in 2015, were also negatively affected by this political shock.
Citation Formats
C. Yüksel Yücel, “Essays on Economic Consequences of a Political Conflict: 2015 Russia-Türkiye Dispute,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2024.