Girdi-Çıktı Analizlerinde Teknoloji ve Yapısal Değişme

Date

1975

Author

Kepenek, Yakup

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This is a survey of analysis related to structural change within the input-output framework. In the first part, the basic characteristics of the open Leonti^f model are summarized. Emphasis is put on the definition of input and investment coefficients and direct and indirect input require ments. The second part is concerned with structurali changes defined rather narrowly, as changes in input and investment coefficients' Factors that cause structural· change are: (a) technological progress (b) relative changes in input prices and (c) changes in the product mix. Methods of inquiry in analysing the effects of above-mentioned factors are grouped into three parts: 1. Analysis of structural chan ges as a whole; 2. Statistical prediction methods; and 3. Structural change and "embodied" technology-a linear programming approach Only the latest developments of these apporaches have been sur veyed. The first method, developed by Leontief and improved by Car ter, is based on the treatment of the inverse matrix of previous pe riods with given final demand. Thus, efects of the factors are not specified separately, but obtained as a whole. Similarly, changes in labor and capital requirements as well as some group of sectors can be found and compared. The second method gives different weights to the factors and estimates changes in coefficientes by using classical linear estima tion methods. It is argued that because of data limilations and shortcomings of the method itself - -like multiple correlation- - this approach can be applied only in a very few sectors, although the biproportional matrix method gives a more comprehensive result. Thirdly, in order to explain structural changes as a whole again a rough linear programming approach as developed by Carter, has been selected for surveying. It is assumed a Id Solow that the new investments embody the best technology. With that, also, old techno logy will be used in production. Given total investments, the objec tive will be to achieve minimum use of primary factors. For that, assumptions about the capacity constraint and scrappage rate must be forthcoming. In conclusion, it is argued that, although methods are at their early stages, the input-output approach to the problem of technolo gical progress and structural change provides a very broad frame work in terms of both, sectoral analysis and analysis of economy as a whole.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/109738

Collections

Department of Economics, Article