Essays on the middle income trap with special emphasis on Turkey

Yılmaz, Gökhan
In the thesis, we present two different endogenous growth models for a middle income trap economy. In order to present two growth models, first we investigate the experiences of the middle income trap and nontrap countries. Our analysis shows importance of “human capital” and “structural change” rooted factors to overcome the middle income trap. Second, we analyze the relative importance of these factors by using the shift share analysis. Our findings demonstrate that average labor productivity growth rates differ significantly in the trap and nontrap economies and this difference mainly comes from the “within sector” productivity gains. Third, we present an endogenous growth model with quadratic technology function for a middle income trap economy (the first model). The quantitative assessment of the model for Turkey shows that increasing the years of schooling, educational quality, share of researchers in overall educated population, and the technology transfer may enable Turkey to escape the trap. Last, we present an endogenous growth model with human capital and biased technological changes for a middle income trap economy (the second model). The model implies that the most effective two ways to get a higher growth rate and hence to get satisfactory convergence experience are to have improvements in human capital quantity and quality. Both of the models in the thesis show the importance of a high quality education system with special emphasis on the science, technology, engineering and mathematics training to overcome the trap.


Regulation theory and economic crises: the cases of Greece and Turkey
Üçtuğ, Çağan; Yalvaç, Faruk; Department of International Relations (2012)
This thesis analyzes the economic crises of recent years through the lens of the Regulation Theory. It focuses on the Greek Crisis of 2009 and the Turkish Financial Crises of 2000 and 2001. Furthermore it also analyzes the crisis in the United States to give a better grounding for the current crises. The thesis tries to answer the questions of whether or not Regulation Theory proves to be a sufficient tool for analyzing these crises and whether or not these fit the definition of crisis that the Regulation T...
The Assessment of macroeconomic variability and monetary transmission mechanisms in Turkey with VAR esrimates
Baştan, Emine Meltem; Gaygısız Lajunen, Esma; Department of Economics (2012)
This thesis investigates the nature of macroeconomic changes by focussing on the monetary policy changes in Turkey between 1990Q1-2011Q4 and assesses the variability of the economy via impulse response functions obtained from VAR analyses. The period of the analyses is characterized with changes of the definitions of monetary aggregates in 2002 and 2007. In order to have consistent monetary series, the new and old series are constructed according to new and old definitions and then analyses are carried out ...
Analysis of the monetary stance of Turkey between 2011 and 2018 with a new monetary conditions index: the roles of government bond yields and the exchange rate
Kaptan, Savaş; Gaygısız Lajunen, Esma; Department of Economics (2019)
Measuring the monetary policy stance of central banks is a much-debated issue in the literature. The changing economic dynamics over the time and different structures of economies have made impossible to use only short term interest rates, monetary aggregates or money market rates for analyzing the monetary stance. Accordingly, comprehensive monetary conditions indexes have been discovered and some central banks have started to use them as an operational target. In line with these developments, the main aim...
An evaluation of the trilemma: global constraints on monetary policies of developing countries in the post Bretton Woods era
Tercioğlu, Remzi Barış; Cömert, Hasan; Department of Economics (2016)
This study investigates monetary policy independence of developing countries in the context of the trilemma concept in the post Bretton Woods Era. Throughout the thesis, multidirectional effects of financial flows on monetary policies of developing countries are described and limits on effectiveness of the policy rate tool are discussed. As empirical evidence shows, global factors restrict central bank independence in developing countries and the policy rate tool is not effective enough in influencing long-...
The Role of Knowledge on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey, 1963-2010
Utku İsmihan, Fatma M. (Science And Technology Policies Research Center, Middle East Technical University (Ankara, Turkey), 2012)
The importance of knowledge for long-run economic growth has long been an important research area for economists and policy makers. This paper attempts to analyze the impact of knowledge on economic growth in Turkey over the 1963-2010 period, by using a production function approach. In contrast to early studies, which have analyzed the impact of a single dimension of knowledge on economic growth, a knowledge index is constructed to see the impact of various dimensions of knowledge with a single and comprehe...
Citation Formats
G. Yılmaz, “Essays on the middle income trap with special emphasis on Turkey,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2016.