Determination of zonal power demand S-curves with GA based on top-to-bottom and end-use approaches

Date

2016-04-21

Author

TURSUN, Faik
CEBECI, Mahmut E.
TOR, Osman B.
SAHIN, Aydin
TASKIN, Hacer G.
Güven, Ali Nezih

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Long-term zonal demand forecasting is a complex problem for electric distribution systems, particularly when the planner has limited data, and therefore, needs smart approaches along with proper estimations. This paper presents a novel methodology to determine saturation curves (S-curves) of demand zones which are classified based on municipality development plans. The methodology which is based on combination of top-to-bottom and bottom-to-top (also called end-use) approaches, is applied to the network of Akdeniz Distribution Company (DISCO) of Turkey. Genetic algorithm (GA) technique is utilized to determine zonal S-curves by utilizing top-to-bottom projections and expected saturation demands of the zones. Sensitivity analysis shows that the proposed method gives reliable results as long as top-to-bottom results represent the total demand of the zones satisfactorily and the planner defines the constraints reasonably.

Subject Keywords

S-curve, Genetic algorithm, Demand forecast, Power distribution, DigSilent PowerFactory

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/39805

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1109/sgcf.2016.7492423

Conference Name

4th International Istanbul Smart Grid Congress and Fair (ICSG)

Collections

Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Conference / Seminar

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Citation Formats

F. TURSUN, M. E. CEBECI, O. B. TOR, A. SAHIN, H. G. TASKIN, and A. N. Güven, “Determination of zonal power demand S-curves with GA based on top-to-bottom and end-use approaches,” presented at the 4th International Istanbul Smart Grid Congress and Fair (ICSG), Istanbul, TURKEY, 2016, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/39805.