Date

2023-1-27

Author

Kızıloğlu, İsmail Onur

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Pricing is one of the crucial aspects of the insurance industry. There are compulsory regulations on Motor Third Party Liability Insurance in Türkiye. After the cap premium, the significance of correct pricing for the profitability of the companies has increased even more. In this thesis, premiums are estimated quarterly using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub credibility methods for the cities of Türkiye. First, the cities are sorted according to the total number of claims and divided into at least 3 and at most 10 groups. The reason for sorting by the number of claims is that the exposure measure is used for Bühlmann-Straub credibility, and cities that show similarity according to claim number are grouped together. Secondly, credibility results are calculated for cities in which grouping is made by geographical regions. After that, cities are divided into 3, 6, and 9 groups by applying k-means clustering and credibility results are computed for cities. Lastly, the hierarchical method is used for clustering and cities are divided into groups from 2 to 7. As a result of grouping and calculations, it is seen that the Bühlmann-Straub credibility method with 6 groups clustered according to the hierarchical clustering gives better results.

Subject Keywords

Credibility, Bühlmann, Bühlmann-Straub, K-means Clustering, Hierarchical Clustering

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/102143

Collections

Graduate School of Applied Mathematics, Thesis