THE FUTURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISH STOCKS IN THE BLACK SEA: AN END-TO-END MODEL APPROACH

Date

2024-1-23

Author

Uysaler, Hacer Buse

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The warming of the Black Sea significantly affects the marine ecosystem, fish populations, and livelihoods. Comprehensive models that make assessments about the past, present, and predictions concerning future changes of marine ecosystems are critical tools to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics in response to environmental changes. Until now, the long-term effects of climate change on the Black Sea ecosystem and fish populations have not been extensively studied. This study used the individual-based model OSMOSE (Object-oriented Simulator of Marine Ecosystems Exploitation) to investigate the possible future changes in Black Sea fish stocks under climate change until the end of the 21st century by capitalizing on IPCC climate projections. The dynamics of eight commercially important fish species, anchovy, sprat, Mediterranean horse mackerel, whiting, red mullet, turbot, bluefish, and bonito, were examined under two scenarios, i) a hindcast scenario for 2000-2014, and ii) a future scenario for 2086-2100. The model outcomes showed consistent alignment with observed data. The model results showed that there will be an increase in biomass and catch values of all fish species, as a result of predicted increases at lower trophic levels. Furthermore, predicted increases were generally observed for all size classes. Smaller individuals were projected to dominate the system, demonstrating the impact of unsustainable fishing. The findings of this study could provide critical insights for the development of climate-adapted fishing strategies in the Black Sea using a size-based opportunistic predation approach. Therefore, these strategies should focus on the recovery of populations in larger size classes, with climate-adapted strategies to ensure sustainable and long-term fisheries.

Subject Keywords

Black Sea, Fish Stocks, Ecosystem Modelling, Climate Change, Fisheries

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/108814

Collections

Graduate School of Marine Sciences, Thesis