Show/Hide Menu
Hide/Show Apps
Logout
Türkçe
Türkçe
Search
Search
Login
Login
OpenMETU
OpenMETU
About
About
Open Science Policy
Open Science Policy
Open Access Guideline
Open Access Guideline
Postgraduate Thesis Guideline
Postgraduate Thesis Guideline
Communities & Collections
Communities & Collections
Help
Help
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Guides
Guides
Thesis submission
Thesis submission
MS without thesis term project submission
MS without thesis term project submission
Publication submission with DOI
Publication submission with DOI
Publication submission
Publication submission
Supporting Information
Supporting Information
General Information
General Information
Copyright, Embargo and License
Copyright, Embargo and License
Contact us
Contact us
THE FUTURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISH STOCKS IN THE BLACK SEA: AN END-TO-END MODEL APPROACH
Download
HBuseUysaler_MscThesis.pdf
Date
2024-1-23
Author
Uysaler, Hacer Buse
Metadata
Show full item record
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License
.
Item Usage Stats
234
views
100
downloads
Cite This
The warming of the Black Sea significantly affects the marine ecosystem, fish populations, and livelihoods. Comprehensive models that make assessments about the past, present, and predictions concerning future changes of marine ecosystems are critical tools to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics in response to environmental changes. Until now, the long-term effects of climate change on the Black Sea ecosystem and fish populations have not been extensively studied. This study used the individual-based model OSMOSE (Object-oriented Simulator of Marine Ecosystems Exploitation) to investigate the possible future changes in Black Sea fish stocks under climate change until the end of the 21st century by capitalizing on IPCC climate projections. The dynamics of eight commercially important fish species, anchovy, sprat, Mediterranean horse mackerel, whiting, red mullet, turbot, bluefish, and bonito, were examined under two scenarios, i) a hindcast scenario for 2000-2014, and ii) a future scenario for 2086-2100. The model outcomes showed consistent alignment with observed data. The model results showed that there will be an increase in biomass and catch values of all fish species, as a result of predicted increases at lower trophic levels. Furthermore, predicted increases were generally observed for all size classes. Smaller individuals were projected to dominate the system, demonstrating the impact of unsustainable fishing. The findings of this study could provide critical insights for the development of climate-adapted fishing strategies in the Black Sea using a size-based opportunistic predation approach. Therefore, these strategies should focus on the recovery of populations in larger size classes, with climate-adapted strategies to ensure sustainable and long-term fisheries.
Subject Keywords
Black Sea
,
Fish Stocks
,
Ecosystem Modelling
,
Climate Change
,
Fisheries
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/108814
Collections
Graduate School of Marine Sciences, Thesis
Citation Formats
IEEE
ACM
APA
CHICAGO
MLA
BibTeX
H. B. Uysaler, “THE FUTURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISH STOCKS IN THE BLACK SEA: AN END-TO-END MODEL APPROACH,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2024.