A new energy-economy-environment modeling framework: Insights from decarbonization of the Turkish power Sector towards net-zero Emission targets

Date

2024-09-01

Author

Kat, Bora
Şahin, Ü.
Teimourzadeh, S.
Tör, O.B.
Voyvoda, Ebru
Yeldan, A.E.

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The power sector plays a crucial role towards decarbonization for many economies, especially in line with the net-zero targets to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Technical constraints intrinsic to the sector, penetration of new technologies, investment and operational costs, and its connections with the rest of the economy make the power sector a complex system to analyze. Although there are numerous studies to integrate bottom-up power sector technology models with top-down macroeconomic models, this study is the first attempt to link the three separate and interrelated models within a single framework: an electricity market simulation model, a generation expansion planning model, and an applied general equilibrium model. The proposed framework is implemented to analyze a feasible decarbonization scenario for Türkiye, with a particular focus on the power sector. The results suggest that, given the existing capacity and potential for renewables, Türkiye can achieve a coal-phase out by early 2030s, alongside a trajectory towards a full-fledged fossil fuel phase-out in power generation. The results also indicate that while installed capacity and generation of coal-fired power plants are reduced, real GDP and electricity demand can be maintained and the carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector could be reduced by as much as 50% in 2030 compared to 2018 levels.

Subject Keywords

Applied general equilibrium, Coal phase-out, Electricity market simulation model, Energy storage technologies, Fossil fuel phase-out, Generation expansion planning, Linear programming, Türkiye's power generation sector

URI

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85194777766&origin=inward
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/110011

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Article