An agent-based model for flood risk mapping: integration of urbanization and climate change impacts

Date

2024-7-1

Author

Yeğin, Murat

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The frequencies and the magnitudes of flood events are changing along with climate change (CC). In addition to CC, land use/land cover (LULC) also affects flood events. Thus, flood risks cannot be managed with traditional methods. Accordingly, this study combines a hydrological model (HM), a 1D/2D combined hydraulic model (CHM), and an agent-based model (ABM) to assess the impacts of CC and LULC on flood risks. Initially, the HM is calibrated and validated for the study area and then run using 17 regional climate models (RCM) outputs. The flood hydrographs are generated for different return periods using the best RCM. Concurrently, the historical satellite images are analyzed to quantify LULC. The flood hydrographs are used in the CHM, and flood inundation maps (FIMs) are obtained. FIMs are generated for both stationary and nonstationary conditions. Finally, the ABM is developed to assess the effects of the public and government agents in flood risk management (FRM) based on 100 realizations of 11 scenarios. The calculated peak discharges with the historical observations are approximately 52% greater than those of the RCM outputs. Economic damage for the scenario with 113% increased urbanized area is 59% greater than that of the stationary scenario with the historical records. A proactive management strategy decreases the economic damage by 52% compared to a reactive management strategy. When public and government agents are included in the FRM, the economic damages become the lowest; thus, integrating agents’ behavior in FRM through ABM is crucial.

Subject Keywords

Stationarity Analysis, Hydrological Model, Combined 1D/2D Hydraulic Model, Agent-Based Model, Flood Risk

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/110161

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis