FUTURE PREDICTIONS OF AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS IN NORTH CYPRUS

Date

2024-8-27

Author

Waseem, Saba

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As the population goes up, there is more concern about the current and future air pollutant emission levels in North Cyprus. Data were collected from the monitoring stations in Nicosia, Kyrenia, Famagusta and Teknecik to produce a comprehensive data bank for 2016-2019. Rigorous data cleaning, categorization and organizing techniques were used to ensure the reliability of the findings. The main pollutants investigated were PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and NO2. The time series analyses with ARIMA models, tailored to the distinct characteristics of each monitoring station, were employed in the predictions of future emission levels. The model predictions and actual data were compared for 2016-2019 and the technique was successfully validated. The model predictions were then used to forecast the 2020 emission levels. This study investigates the effectivity of using ARIMA models in the forecast of air pollutant emission levels to enable the government entities prepare regulations for environment and human health.

Subject Keywords

North Cyprus, Time Series Analysis, SO2, NO2, PM2.5, PM10

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/112211

Collections

Northern Cyprus Campus, Thesis