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Public debt management in Turkey with stochastic optimization approach

Çelebi, Nuray
The Prime Ministry of Undersecretariat of Treasury maintaining the financial administration of Republic of Turkey has several tasks to handle one of which is to manage the government̕s debt in a way that minimizes the cost regarding risk. Choosing the right instrument and maturity composition that has the least cost and risk is the debt management problem to be dealt with and is affected by many stochastic factors. The objective of this thesis is the optimization of the debt management problem of the Turkish Government via a stochastic simulation framework under the constraints of changes in portfolio positions. Value-at-Risk of the optimal portfolio is calculated to measure market risk. Macroeconomic variables in the optimization problem are modeled with econometric models like autoregressive processes (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average processes (ARIMA) and generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH) processes. The simulation horizon is 2005-2015. Debt portfolio is optimized at 2006 and 2015 where the representative scenarios for the optimization are found by clustering the previously generated 25,000 scenarios into 30 groups at each stage.