Extension of sea surface temperature unpredictability

Date

2019-02-01

Author

Akhmet, Marat
Alejaily, Ejaily Milad

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

61
views

0
downloads

The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is clearly affected by global climate patterns, which involve large-scale ocean-atmosphere fluctuations similar to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We give mathematical arguments for the SST to be unpredictable over oceans. Sensitivity (unpredictability) is the core ingredient of chaos. Several researches suggested that the ENSO might be chaotic. It was Vallis (Science 232:243-245, 1986) who revealed unpredictability in ENSO by reducing his model to the Lorenz equations. We discuss the unpredictability for SST as an extendable phenomenon through coupled Vallis ENSO models and advection equations by using theoretical as well as numerical analyses. To perform theoretical research, we apply our recent results on replication of chaos and unpredictable solutions of differential equations, while for numerical analysis, we combine results on unpredictable solutions with numerical analysis of chaos in the advection equation.

Subject Keywords

Oceanography

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/42777

Journal

OCEAN DYNAMICS

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-018-1231-z

Collections

Department of Mathematics, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

On the summer mesoscale variability of the Black Sea Besiktepe, ST; Lozano, CJ; Robinson, AR (Journal of Marine Research/Yale, 2001-07-01) The evolution of the Black Sea temperature, salinity and circulation, from large scale to mesoscale, is studied using a data-driven primitive equation simulation. The data are drawn from (i) a basin-wide hydrographic survey, CoMSBlack'92, obtained in the Summer of 1992; (ii) wind stress derived from wind analyses of the Sevastopol MSIA/URHI Office; (iii) climatological heat fluxes; and (iv) climatological river outflows. The primitive equation model is from the Harvard Ocean Prediction System. The simulatio...
A SYNTHESIS OF THE LEVANTINE BASIN CIRCULATION AND HYDROGRAPHY, 1985-1990 OZSOY, E; HECHT, A; UNLUATA, U; BRENNER, S; SUR, HI; BISHOP, J; LATIF, MA; ROZENTRAUB, Z; OGUZ, T (Elsevier BV, 1993-01-01) The Levantine Basin circulation derived from recent data consists of a series of sub-basin-scale to mesoscale eddies interconnected by jets. The basin-scale circulation is masked by eddy variability that modulates and modifies it on seasonal and interannual time scales. Long-term qualitative changes in the circulation are reflected in the bifurcation patterns of the mid-basin jets, relative strengths of eddies and the hydrographic properties at the core of these eddies. Confinement within the Basin geometry...
A Possible Submarine Landslide and Associated Tsunami at the Northwest Nile Delta, Mediterranean Sea Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Aytore, Betul; Insel, Isil; Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Kian, Rozita; Imamura, Fumihiko (The Oceanography Society, 2014-06-01) A hypothetical landslide tsunami at the Nile Delta in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea is modeled in order to study hazards it would pose to the region. The methodology used is based on numerical simulation of the generation and propagation of a realistic landslide scenario. The volume of the landslide source is 41 km', located offshore northern Egypt. The maximum simulated wave heights along the northern, southern, and eastern coasts in the region are in the range of 1-12, 1-6.5, and 0.5-3 m, respectively. Th...
A 2-LAYER MODEL OF WATER EXCHANGE THROUGH THE DARDANELLES STRAIT OGUZ, T; SUR, HI (1989-01-01) Water exchange through the Dardanelles Strait is studied by a two-layer model which considers the laterally averaged flow formed by two homogeneous layers of differing density separated by an entraining interface. The model response is discussed in terms of observations from the strait. In particular, the observed asymmetry and rapid transition at the interface depth as weil as the intense mixing which occurs in the southwestern reaches of the strait are found to be related to the hydraulic characteristics ...
Superficial deep-water sediments of the Eastern Marmara Basin Evans, G.; Erten, H.; Alavi, S. N.; Von Gunten, H. R.; Ergin, M. (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 1989-3) Superficial sediments (top ∼ Im) of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, Sea of Marmara, Turkey accumulated rapidly (0.087 ± 0.012 g/cm2 · y) by hemipelagic sedimentation with only limited amounts of gravity flow or bottom current action under low oxygenated but not anoxic conditions. They have restricted faunas, relatively higher organic carbon (1–1.8%) and lower calcium carbonate (14–20%) contents than other Eastern Mediterranean Basin sediments. Sedimentation shows little change over the last millenium excep...

Citation Formats

M. Akhmet and E. M. Alejaily, “Extension of sea surface temperature unpredictability,” OCEAN DYNAMICS, pp. 145–156, 2019, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/42777.