Disaggregate energy consumption, employment and income in Turkey

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to literature on energy consumption and economic growth relationship by examining how much of the variance in national income growth can be explained by the growth of different sources of energy consumption and employment in Turkey. We use the recently developed generalized forecast error variance decomposition technique of Koop et al. [J. Econom. 74 (1996) 119] and Pesaran and Shin [Econ. Lett. 58 (1998) 17] to determine the information content of the growth rate of energy consumption. Waste seems to have the largest initial impact, followed by oil. However, over a 3-year horizon lignite appears to explain the largest forecast error variance of GDP. The total energy consumption explains 21% of forecast error variance of GDP. Energy consumption appears to be almost as important as employment in Turkey. Therefore, policy-makers may be interested in identifying the energy dependencies of economic growth in allocating the energy investment budget.


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In endogenous growth models, in contrast to the neoclassical growth models, government expenditure and taxation have an effect on the long run growth rate. In this thesis I examine whether the empirical evidence support the predictions of endogenous growth models or the neoclassical growth models in relation to fiscal policy. For this purpose I use panel data for fifteen European Union (EU) member and thirty-three developing countries between the years 1970 and 1999. I specifically test the following two pr...
Citation Formats
R. Sarı and U. Soytaş, “Disaggregate energy consumption, employment and income in Turkey,” ENERGY ECONOMICS, pp. 335–344, 2004, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/44467.