Scenarios as channels of forecast advice

Download

index.pdf

Date

2013-05-01

Author

ÖNKAL, DİLEK
SAYIM YAZAL, KADİRE ZEYNEP
Gönül, Mustafa Sinan

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

188
views

0
downloads

Today's business environment provides tougher competition than ever before, stressing the important role played by information and forecasts in decision-making. The scenario method has been popular for focused organizational learning, decision making and strategic thinking in business contexts, and yet, its use in communicating forecast information and advice has received little research attention. This is surprising since scenarios may provide valuable tools for communication between forecast providers and users in organizations, offering efficient platforms for information exchange via structured storylines of plausible futures. In this paper, we aim to explore the effectiveness of using scenarios as channels of forecast advice. An experimental study is designed to investigate the effects of providing scenarios as forecast advice on individual and group-based judgmental predictions. Participants are given time series information and model forecasts, along with (i) best-case, (ii) worst-case, (iii) both, or (iv) no scenarios. Different forecasting formats are used (i.e., point forecast, best-case forecast, worst-case forecast, and surprise probability), and both individual predictions and consensus forecasts are requested. Forecasts made with and without scenarios are compared for each of these formats to explore the potential effects of providing scenarios as forecast advice. In addition, group effects are investigated via comparisons of composite versus consensus predictions. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and implications for future research on scenario use in forecasting.

Subject Keywords

Forecast, Scenario, Group, Judgment, Advice taking

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/57975

Journal

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.015

Collections

Department of Business Administration, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Organizational memory formation and its use in construction Ozorhon, B; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (Informa UK Limited, 2005-01-01) As knowledge becomes a source of competitive advantage, knowledge-management activities have become critical for success. Construction firms can effectively use their organizational memory to enhance their decision-making abilities. A framework was constructed to model the organizational memory formation process in construction companies. Based on this model, an interview study was conducted to investigate both the organizational memory formation and the role of organizational memory in strategic decision-m...
Development of a risk assessment tool for post-project appraisal Anaç, Caner; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat; Department of Civil Engineering (2007) As competition in the business environment increases, knowledge management becomes a critical success factor. Firms should be able to gather, analyze and reuse knowledge to support their strategic decisions. Construction firms should also analyze information in hand (completed and on going project data) and make it a part of their learning mechanism. Post-project appraisal is an organizational learning mechanism aiming to form an organizational memory. Organizational memory is a remedy for organizational am...
Optimal Mechanisms to Match Supply and Demand in Contemporary Supply Chains (OPTCHAIN) Merzifonluoğlu, Yasemin(2016-2-07) Emerging production and information technologies have increased competition and consumer expectations, this leads to ever-shrinking product life cycles, volatile and unpredictable markets. In addition, natural disasters, accidents, supply disruptions increased the risk in today’s global and long supply chains. Keeping costs down and customers satisfied in a global marketplace requires companies to proactively manage supply and demand using state of art techniques, technologies and practices. This proposal d...
Analysis of organisational routines to understand change in construction: the case of Turkish construction industry Daneshvar, Maryam; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat; Department of Civil Engineering (2011) Surrounding business environment, opportunities and requirements of organizations are under constant change. According to the evolutionary economics, organizations continuously make efforts to adapt themselves in line with changing circumstances of environments where they operate. In exploration of organizational change, organizational routines are recognized as the key analysis units. It is because when a change plan is required, routines undergo design or redesign processes. The construction industry lite...
The development of data analytics maturity assessment framework: DAMAF Gökalp, Mert Onuralp; Gökalp, Selin; Koçyiğit, Altan (2021-12-01) Today, data analytics plays a vital role in attaining competitive advantage, generating business value, and driving revenue streams for organizations. Thus, the organizations pay significant attention to improve their data analytics maturity. Nevertheless, the existing literature is dramatically limited in proposing a comprehensive roadmap to assist organizations for this scope. Thus, this study focuses on developing data analytics maturity assessment framework (DAMAF) that evaluates the organizational data...

Citation Formats

D. ÖNKAL, K. Z. SAYIM YAZAL, and M. S. Gönül, “Scenarios as channels of forecast advice,” TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, pp. 772–788, 2013, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/57975.