Photovoltaic power plant design considering multiple uncertainties and risk

Date

2018-03-01

Author

Merzifonluoglu, Yasemin
Uzgoren, Eray

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

309
views

0
downloads

The objective of this study was to develop stochastic optimization tools for determining the best strategy of photovoltaic installations in a campus environment with consideration of uncertainties in load, power generation and system performance. In addition to a risk neutral approach, we used Conditional Value-at-Risk to estimate the risk in our problem. The resulting Mixed Integer Programming models were formulated using a scenario-based approach. To minimize the mismatch between supply and demand, hourly solar resource and electricity demand levels were characterized via refined models. A sample-average approximation (SAA) method was proposed to provide high-quality solutions efficiently. The SAA problems were solved using exact and heuristic methods. A complete numerical study was conducted to examine the performance of the proposed solution methods, identify optimal selection strategies and consider the sensitivity of the solution to varying levels of risk.

Subject Keywords

Stochastic programming, Renewable energy, Conditional Value-at-Risk, Photovoltaic system sizing

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/65442

Journal

ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-017-2557-5

Collections

Economics and Administrative Sciences, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Optimal photovoltaic size estimation for a campus area considering uncertainties in load, power generation and electricity rates Ali, Syed Muhammad Hassan; Uzgören, Yasemin; Uzgören, Eray; Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems (2015-6) The objective of this thesis is to develop simulation based optimization tools to determine the best strategy for photovoltaic (PV) installations at a campus environment (Middle East Technical University, Northern Cyprus Campus) with consideration of available risks and uncertainties in load, power generation and electricity rates. The first step is to accurately characterize the electricity consumption (load) pattern of the campus. Electricity demand is modeled using different forecasting models based on h...
IMAGE-BASED OCCUPANCY SENSING AND PRIVACY IMPLICATIONS Haroon, Hammad; Pekeriçli, Mehmet Koray; Department of Building Science in Architecture (2022-7-07) As the use of data collection in the built environment increased, data pertaining to building occupancy has gained considerable importance in realms such as energy optimization and spatial usage analytics. However, many data collection approaches infringe on individuals’ rights to privacy, and subsequently their comfort. This thesis aims to address the tension between the proliferation of smart building technologies and individual privacy and autonomy, specifically focusing on image-based sensing. It explor...
Composite index for benchmarking local energy systems of Mediterranean port cities Kılkış, Şiir (2015-12-01) Benchmarking the performance of local energy systems requires an integrated approach. This paper develops a composite index that consists of a unique set of 7 dimensions and 35 main indicators. The SDEWES (Sustainable Development of Energy, Water, and Environment Systems) Index is applied to a sample of 22 Mediterranean port cities. The index integrates energy and CO2 emissions data from SEAP (Sustainable Energy Action Plans). The values of the indicators are aggregated based on the Min-Max method for a fin...
Empirical feasibility analysis of thermoelectric energy harvesting in thermally limited compact mobile computers Khan, M. A. A.; Muhtaroglu, A. (AIP Publishing, 2014-01-01) Thermoelectric (TE) generation technology was experimentally established in previous research by our group as a viable technique for energy scavenging in a large notebook computer with no significant impact to system performance. The computer under investigation was designed to have additional thermal headroom, with Central Processing Unit (CPU) temperature significantly below its maximum limit under maximum workload conditions. Yet the question remained on if and how such scavenging could be done in small,...
Parallel solution of soil-structure interaction problems on pc clusters Bahçecioğlu, Tunç; Çetin, Kemal Önder; Department of Civil Engineering (2011) Numerical assessment of soil structure interaction problems require heavy computational efforts because of the dynamic and iterative (nonlinear) nature of the problems. Furthermore, modeling soil-structure interaction may require ﬁner meshes in order to get reliable results. Latest computing technologies must be utilized to achieve results in reasonable run times. This study focuses on development and implantation of a parallel dynamic ﬁnite element analysis method for numerical solution of soil-structure i...

Citation Formats

Y. Merzifonluoglu and E. Uzgoren, “Photovoltaic power plant design considering multiple uncertainties and risk,” ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH, pp. 153–184, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/65442.