Photovoltaic power plant design considering multiple uncertainties and risk

Merzifonluoglu, Yasemin
Uzgoren, Eray
The objective of this study was to develop stochastic optimization tools for determining the best strategy of photovoltaic installations in a campus environment with consideration of uncertainties in load, power generation and system performance. In addition to a risk neutral approach, we used Conditional Value-at-Risk to estimate the risk in our problem. The resulting Mixed Integer Programming models were formulated using a scenario-based approach. To minimize the mismatch between supply and demand, hourly solar resource and electricity demand levels were characterized via refined models. A sample-average approximation (SAA) method was proposed to provide high-quality solutions efficiently. The SAA problems were solved using exact and heuristic methods. A complete numerical study was conducted to examine the performance of the proposed solution methods, identify optimal selection strategies and consider the sensitivity of the solution to varying levels of risk.


Optimal photovoltaic size estimation for a campus area considering uncertainties in load, power generation and electricity rates
Ali, Syed Muhammad Hassan; Uzgören, Yasemin; Uzgören, Eray; Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems (2015-6)
The objective of this thesis is to develop simulation based optimization tools to determine the best strategy for photovoltaic (PV) installations at a campus environment (Middle East Technical University, Northern Cyprus Campus) with consideration of available risks and uncertainties in load, power generation and electricity rates. The first step is to accurately characterize the electricity consumption (load) pattern of the campus. Electricity demand is modeled using different forecasting models based on h...
Composite index for benchmarking local energy systems of Mediterranean port cities
Kılkış, Şiir (2015-12-01)
Benchmarking the performance of local energy systems requires an integrated approach. This paper develops a composite index that consists of a unique set of 7 dimensions and 35 main indicators. The SDEWES (Sustainable Development of Energy, Water, and Environment Systems) Index is applied to a sample of 22 Mediterranean port cities. The index integrates energy and CO2 emissions data from SEAP (Sustainable Energy Action Plans). The values of the indicators are aggregated based on the Min-Max method for a fin...
Empirical feasibility analysis of thermoelectric energy harvesting in thermally limited compact mobile computers
Khan, M. A. A.; Muhtaroglu, A. (AIP Publishing, 2014-01-01)
Thermoelectric (TE) generation technology was experimentally established in previous research by our group as a viable technique for energy scavenging in a large notebook computer with no significant impact to system performance. The computer under investigation was designed to have additional thermal headroom, with Central Processing Unit (CPU) temperature significantly below its maximum limit under maximum workload conditions. Yet the question remained on if and how such scavenging could be done in small,...
Renewable energy promotion strategies of individual states and regional frameworks: a comparative approach
Şekerci, Almira Sinemis; Tanrısever, Oktay Fırat; Department of International Relations (2017)
This thesis seeks to examine the importance of using renewable energy by using different promotion strategies, methods, technologies and policies among the different countries and regional frameworks in order to achieve a sustainable future. The main argument of the thesis is that contrary to the views of some scholars, who argue that it is the renewable energy potential of countries that is the key for the development of the renewable energy sectors, this thesis argues that it is mainly the renewable energ...
A stochastic programming approach to multicriteria portfolio optimization
Sakar, Ceren Tuncer; Köksalan, Mustafa Murat (2013-10-01)
We study a stochastic programming approach to multicriteria multi-period portfolio optimization problem. We use a Single Index Model to estimate the returns of stocks from a market-representative index and a random walk model to generate scenarios on the possible values of the index return. We consider expected return, Conditional Value at Risk and liquidity as our criteria. With stocks from Istanbul Stock Exchange, we make computational studies for the two and three-criteria cases. We demonstrate the trade...
Citation Formats
Y. Merzifonluoglu and E. Uzgoren, “Photovoltaic power plant design considering multiple uncertainties and risk,” ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH, pp. 153–184, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: