Annual and seasonal trend patterns of climate change in North Cyprus

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2013-3

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Seyhun, Rahme

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In order to meet water needs for the present and future to sustain life, applying sustainable water resources management is vital. Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes affect the agriculture and ecosystem. Therefore, investigation of the changes in the spatial and temporal rainfall and temperature patterns is important for sustainable water resources management. The meteorological data used in this study was obtained from North Cyprus Meteorological Office. Annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall variables are studied in order to examine the changes in precipitation regimes, while average and maximum of monthly maximum, average and minimum of monthly minimum, average of monthly average, and monthly diurnal temperature variables are used for the study of temperature regimes. Nonparametric Mann-Kendall rank correlation, Seasonal Kendall, Sen‟s T, and Seasonal Sen‟s T tests are employed to identify the existence of linear trend in rainfall and temperature variables. 10% significance level is used to extract significant trends. After filling in missing data and testing for homogeneity of time series for the period of 1978-2011, these trend tests are applied to the observed rainfall data from 20 rain-gauge stations, and temperature data from 8 temperature-gauge stations, all located in the northern part of the island. Inverse Distance Method has been used to fill in the missing values in the temperature and precipitation data. Furthermore, Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) is employed in this study to determine the non-homogeneities in the data. The results show that there is no nonhomogeneity in the records of both temperature and precipitation variables. Trend tests indicate that there is no trend in the annual rainfall. However, upward trends in September rainfall and downward trends in March rainfall have been observed in most of the stations. This indicates that there is a shift in monthly rainfall regime. On the other hand, there are strong increasing trends in temperature variables, except downward trends in monthly diurnal temperatures. These upward trends have been observed mostly in summer months and almost in all stations. Diurnal temperature range indicates the differential value between average maximum and minimum temperatures. Since trends in average minimum temperatures have increased at a faster rate, decreasing trends have been observed in Diurnal temperature ranges in most of the stations. Trends in more extreme temperature variables, minimum of monthly minimum and maximum of monthly maximum temperatures, also increased during the period mostly in summer season, although the trends are not strong as the trends in the other temperature variables.

Subject Keywords

Rainfall and temperature trend analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend test, Seasonal Kendall test, Sen's T test, Seasonal Sen's Ttest, North Cyprus, Yağış ve sıcaklık trend analizleri, Mann-Kendall trend testi, Seasonal Kendall testi, Sen's T test ve Seasonal Sen's T test, Kuzey Kıbrıs

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/69684

Collections

Northern Cyprus Campus, Thesis

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Citation Formats

R. Seyhun, “Annual and seasonal trend patterns of climate change in North Cyprus,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2013.