Date

2017-6

Author

Haneef, Fahad

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The objective of this thesis is to investigate the wind energy potential at Middle East Technical University Northern Cyprus Campus (METU NCC) by statistically analyzing the measured data between 2013-2016 at METU NCC wind mast. Fact that Cyprus is an island, not enriched with fossil fuels, electricity generation is dependent upon heavy consumption of imported fuel oil. Numerous studies have proven the island’s solar potential but little has been done for wind power feasibility. Investigating the feasibility of wind power generation at METU NCC will not only promote wind power generation in the region and help minimize the dependency on fuel oil, but also encourage investors to invest in wind energy in Cyprus. This wind resource assessment study mainly focuses on statistical evaluation of the wind energy potential of a site and this methodology is applicable to any site for conducting preliminary wind resource assessment. The feasibility analysis in this research is performed with the help of different statistical software’s such as MS Excel, Matlab, WRPlot, R software and WAsP. The site evaluation includes characterization of wind speeds, examining wind shear exponent effect in a complex terrain, statistical distributions of wind speed and wind shear exponent, annual energy production (AEP) estimation and economic analysis of a number of wind turbines. Based on the results, it is suggested that METU NCC wind mast site has fair potential for wind power generation and with an average wind speed of 5-5.5 m/s, it can be categorized as IEC Class I site. Synthetic dataset such as TMY wind data (by meteonorm) for METU NCC is found to be inefficient as it entirely fails to represent the actual site resources. The study recommends, first a value of 0.176 as a representative wind shear exponent for METU NCC site and secondly, Beta distribution parameters, which are predicted using maximum goodness of fit method, are the most suitable for wind shear exponent distribution. From the test results, it is evidently revealed that wind speed distribution is better presented by Gamma distribution than any other distribution. Furthermore, polynomial regression technique is found to be an accurate method to describe a turbine power curve. As per this preliminary analysis, AEP for 500 kW turbine is about 543, 622 and 662 MWh at 50 m, 65 m and 75 m hub heights, respectively. The AEP for 750 kW wind turbine is 957, 1085 and 1151 MWh at hub heights of 50 m, 65 m and 75 m, respectively. Similarly, AEP calculated for 1 MW wind turbine was 1113, 1279 and 1363 MWh at the same three heights, respectively. Economic feasibility analysis showed that electricity generation from 500 kW wind turbine would have capacity factors (CF) of 12%, 14% and 15% with a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) 0.157, 0.139 and 0.132 USD/kW for 50 m, 65 m and 75 m hub heights. A 750 kW wind turbine would have CF of 15%, 17% and 18% with an LCOE 0.136, 0.122 and 0.116 USD/kW respectively. In case of 1 MW turbine CF was 13%, 15% and 16% with LCOE to be 0.153, 0.136 and 0.129 USD/kW respectively. The feasibility study indicates that, a 750kW wind turbine at 75m hub height would be the most lucrative, technically and economically feasible system for METU NCC.

Subject Keywords

Wind Resource Assessment, Wind Speed, Wind Energy, Wind Shear Exponent, Wind Speed Distribution, Goodness Of Fit

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/69821

Collections

Northern Cyprus Campus, Thesis