Forecasting Heroin Overdose Occurrences from Crime Incidents

Date

2018-07-13

Author

Ertuğrul, Ali Mert
Lin, Yuru
Mair, Christina

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

347
views

0
downloads

Opioid overdoses continue to worsen in the United States, with rapid increases in overdose deaths involving heroin. This crisis, recognized as “opioid epidemic”, has widespread consequences across every region and every demographic group. To enhance the overdose surveillance and to identify the areas in need of prevention effort, in this work, we explore the forecasting capability of heroin overdose occurrences using real-time crime data. Prior works suggested different types of links between the overdose occurrences and criminal activities, such as financial motives and common causes. Grounded on these observations, we present a model that utilizes the spatiotemporal structure of the crime incidents to forecast future heroin overdose occurrences. Results show that, our method achieves better performance, with significantly lower errors (in terms of RMSE and MAE) compared with the baseline method. Our method also allows for meaningful interpretation from both spatial and temporal aspects, including identifying predictive hotspots, local and global contributions, and informative features.

Subject Keywords

Forecasting heroin overdoses, Spatiotemporal modeling, Modeling crime dynamics

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/70851
http://sbp-brims.org/2018/proceedings/papers/challenge_papers/SBP-BRiMS_2018_paper_122.pdf

Collections

Graduate School of Informatics, Course Material

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

CASTNet: Community-Attentive Spatio-Temporal Networks for Opioid Overdose Forecasting Ertuğrul, Ali Mert; Lin, Yu Ru; Taşkaya Temizel, Tuğba (2019-09-20) Opioid overdose is a growing public health crisis in the United States. This crisis, recognized as “opioid epidemic,” has widespread societal consequences including the degradation of health, and the increase in crime rates and family problems. To improve the overdose surveillance and to identify the areas in need of prevention effort, in this work, we focus on forecasting opioid overdose using real-time crime dynamics. Previous work identified various types of links between opioid use and criminal activit...
Design, synthesis, molecular docking studies and biological evaluation of thiazole carboxamide derivatives as COX inhibitors Hawash, Mohammed; Jaradat, Nidal; Abualhasan, Murad; ŞÜKÜROĞLU, MURAT KADİR; Qaoud, Mohammed T.; Kahraman, Deniz Cansen; Daraghmeh, Heba; Maslamani, Leen; Sawafta, Mais; Ratrout, Ala; Issa, Linda (2023-12-01) Background: Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been the most commonly used class of medications worldwide for the last three decades. Objectives: This study aimed to design and synthesize a novel series of methoxyphenyl thiazole carboxamide derivatives and evaluate their cyclooxygenase (COX) suppressant and cytotoxic properties. Methods: The synthesized compounds were characterized using 1H, 13C-NMR, IR, and HRMS spectrum analysis and were evaluated for their selectivity towards COX-1 and CO...
INTEGRATIVE NETWORK MODELLING OF DRUG RESPONSES IN CANCER FOR REVEALING MECHANISM OF ACTION Ünsal Beyge, Şeyma; Tunçbağ, Nurcan; Department of Medical Informatics (2021-9-6) Classification of cancer drugs is crucial for drug repurposing since the cost and innovation deficit make new drug development processes challenging. Heterogeneity of cancer causes drug classification purely based on known mechanism of action (MoA) and the list of target proteins to be insufficient. Multi-omic data integration is necessary for a systems biology perspective to understand molecular mechanisms and interactions between cellular entities underlying the disease. This study integrates drug-target ...
Investigation of the Therapeutic Effects of Palbociclib Conjugated Magnetic Nanoparticles on Different Types of Breast Cancer Cell Lines Parsian, Maryam; MUTLU, PELİN; Taghavi Pourianazar, Negar; Yalcin Azarkan, Serap; Gündüz, Ufuk (2023-01-01) Introduction: Drug targeting and controlled drug release systems in cancer treatment have many advantages over conventional chemotherapy in terms of limiting systemic toxicity, side effects, and overcoming drug resistance. Methods and Results: In this paper, fabricating nanoscale delivery system composed of magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) covered with poly-amidoamine (PAMAM) dendrimers and using its advantages were fully used to help the chemotherapeutic drug, Palbociclib, effectively reach tumors, specifical...
Differential gene expression analysis related to extracellular matrix components in drug-resistant RPMI-8226 cell line Mutlu, Pelin; Gündüz, Ufuk (Elsevier BV, 2012-4) Drug resistance remains a major obstacle to the successful use of chemotherapeutic drugs for many types of cancers including multiple myeloma. It is becoming increasingly apparent that tumor microenvironment could provide a shelter to malignant plasma cells that allow their survival after initial drug exposure. This study demonstrates alterations in gene expression levels of several extracellular matrix (ECM) components in prednisone, vincristine and melphalan-resistant RPMI-8226 myeloma cells. Resistant RP...

Citation Formats

A. M. Ertuğrul, Y. Lin, and C. Mair, “Forecasting Heroin Overdose Occurrences from Crime Incidents,” 00, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/70851.